As a sci-fi explanation for the Fermi Paradox, I found Dark Forest Theory compelling and thrilling.
As an actual IRL explanation for a lack of First Contact, I'm totally underwhelmed. Space is big. The speed of light heavily truncates both travel and communication. Extraterrestrial life certainly isn't common, as evidenced by all of the planets in our own Solar System that are lifeless.
It should be noted that
spoiler
across three different books, the humans and tri-solarians never actually meet. The whole build-up is ultimately a bust, as both humans and aliens end up fleeing Dark Forest attacks by other alien races who have only just barely noticed their presence and attack on reflex. Fun dramatic twist, but it really banks on everyone being invested in outcomes that are hundreds of generations into the future.
That strikes me as highly implausible.
Other thoughts: If aliens showed up it we wouldn't detect them in atmo, not as a quick fly by. We'd detect something huge like engines or something going real fast way out in space. Like on the edge of the system. If they were in our atmosphere they would make themselves known one way or another at that point.
The sheer amount of energy for super-luminal travel would suggest we either can't see them or can't miss them.
But one posits a degree of technological advancement so beyond our current scope that we can barely conceive of it. And the other posits a kind-of soft ceiling to scientific advancement, such that alien life just can't be an issue even in another thousand lifetimes.
If first contact is anything, it will more likely be communicative than a literal fly by. Humans tuning into the extraterrestrial equivalent of AM radio will be the first to discover an advanced off-world civilization.
Going back to 3Body, one of the most compelling plot beats for me was
spoiler
when the Tri-solarians started producing daytime drama TV shows about star-crossed lovers communing across a great distance, in order to influence humans into sympathizing with the refugee colony ships they intended to send Earthward.
Like, that's what I imagine a real human/alien interaction would look like for... centuries. Long before either saw the other one face-to-face.
As a sci-fi explanation for the Fermi Paradox, I found Dark Forest Theory compelling and thrilling.
As an actual IRL explanation for a lack of First Contact, I'm totally underwhelmed. Space is big. The speed of light heavily truncates both travel and communication. Extraterrestrial life certainly isn't common, as evidenced by all of the planets in our own Solar System that are lifeless.
It should be noted that
spoiler
across three different books, the humans and tri-solarians never actually meet. The whole build-up is ultimately a bust, as both humans and aliens end up fleeing Dark Forest attacks by other alien races who have only just barely noticed their presence and attack on reflex. Fun dramatic twist, but it really banks on everyone being invested in outcomes that are hundreds of generations into the future.
That strikes me as highly implausible.
The sheer amount of energy for super-luminal travel would suggest we either can't see them or can't miss them.
But one posits a degree of technological advancement so beyond our current scope that we can barely conceive of it. And the other posits a kind-of soft ceiling to scientific advancement, such that alien life just can't be an issue even in another thousand lifetimes.
If first contact is anything, it will more likely be communicative than a literal fly by. Humans tuning into the extraterrestrial equivalent of AM radio will be the first to discover an advanced off-world civilization.
Going back to 3Body, one of the most compelling plot beats for me was
spoiler
when the Tri-solarians started producing daytime drama TV shows about star-crossed lovers communing across a great distance, in order to influence humans into sympathizing with the refugee colony ships they intended to send Earthward.
Like, that's what I imagine a real human/alien interaction would look like for... centuries. Long before either saw the other one face-to-face.
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