is there really any firm reason to believe this beyond the baltics being closer? i figured after they droned moscow they had the range. ukraine not 'admitting to it' seems expected because their drone campaign is mostly just terrorism, and it doesn't seem like they accomplished anything here. the drones getting through belarussian airspace is also unsurprising while they're not on war footing & ukrainian drones have made it similarly far through active russian air defenses