Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron
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Quelle mouche a piqué le président au moment d'envisager l'envoi de troupes en Ukraine ? Plusieurs rapports confidentiels défense expliquent « l’affolement » de l’Élysée, où les chefs de partis sont invités ce jeudi 7 mars à évoquer la question. Sur le front, les Russes sont en position de force. Fallait-il pour autant, face à Poutine, brandir une menace intenable ?

TLDR

  1. Western planners underestimated Russian strength and assumed their defense lines would collapse upon breach.
  2. Ukrainian brigade training was insufficient, too administrative, and short.
  3. Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.
  4. The report emphasizes Russian superiority in defensive tactics with heavy machinery for fortification.
  5. The Russian army is recognized as the technical reference for defensive strategies.
  6. Western press reported Moscow's lack of interest in soldiers' lives, but confidential reports suggest otherwise.
  7. Russians practice "Maskirovka," appearing weak to hide their true strength.
  8. A stampede occurred during the loss of Avdiivka on February 17.
  9. Macron presented other reports to political opponents, challenging Western press's underestimation of Russian capabilities.
  10. Ukrainian general staff lacks a critical mass of ground forces capable of breaking through Russian defensive lines.
  11. The most serious error is seeking exclusively military solutions to end hostilities.
  12. A French officer concludes that Ukraine cannot win the war militarily due to insufficient forces.
  13. Ukrainian soldiers' fighting spirit is affected by ongoing conflict.
  14. Zelensky needs 35,000 men per month but isn't recruiting half of them while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers each month.
  15. The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an "elite" brigade's dispatch.
  • Tankiedesantski [he/him]9•3 months ago

    Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.

    "How often do we have to teach you this lesson, old man?"

    Russians practice "Maskirovka," appearing weak to hide their true strength.

    Fair enough. You could only know this if you studied an obscure conflict called "World War 2". Very esoteric knowledge.

    The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an "elite" brigade's dispatch.

    Throwing an "elite" (read: more well equipped than usual) formation to stop an advance is what the Nazis resorted to doing after the war had decisively turned against them. Didn't work for them then, doesn't seem to work for Ukraine now. Almost as if it's a bad strategy only employed by losers.