• Saeculum [he/him, comrade/them]
    ·
    8 months ago

    This means that you have to train crews for each specific tank, and if one tank breaks down, you cannot use parts of another tank to repair it.

    Sure, but they have trained crews for each specific tank.

    Nobody in Europe wants to fight Russia, the calls for conscription are much more likely to topple pro NATO governments than accomplish anything else. People are already literally rioting all across Europe, and anti war parties are gaining popularity by the day.

    I don't know what riots you're talking about, the pension protests in France? The farmers protests in Germany, Belgium and the UK?

    Anti-Russian sentiment is very strong, especially in Eastern Europe, and most of the large nations are likely to have enough volunteers to remove the need for conscription in the mid term.

    Nothing of the sort happened. Only thing EU managed to achieve was to drive up the price.

    Ammunition production across Europe has significantly increased, and continues to increase, the price has gone up per shell sure, but that doesn't contradict an increase in production.

    The only western source that provides any actual methodology puts Russian losses at around 47k, it's absurd to call that considerable for a country with a population of 140 million.

    The source you linked doesn't place losses "around" 47k, it established 47k as the absolute minimum, and provides a higher estimate based on excess mortality. With roughly 100k dead, you'd normally expect to see 2-3x that in injuries rending personnel unfit for service with modern battlefield medicine, and 300-400k gone is more than the entire Russian active combat personnel before the escalation of the war in 2022.

    Russia has already stated that they will continue to push in Ukraine and will directly engage NATO if NATO decides to put boots on the ground. This an existential war for Russia, and it's not about Ukraine. The war is about NATO expansion, and Russia will call NATO bluffs.

    Assuming it is a bluff. Russia is already bordered by NATO in the Baltic for hundreds of miles, it can survive a NATO Ukraine in the same way that China has survived being surrounded by US allies along it's entire eastern border.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆@lemmygrad.ml
      ·
      8 months ago

      Sure, but they have trained crews for each specific tank.

      And that's precisely the problem. All the logistics become a lot more complicated, and when you lose people and equipment, it's that much more difficult toe work around that. This is why any serious military actually standardizes so that you have common platforms with fungible parts, and people can be trained once and use all the equipment. It should be obvious why standardization is important when you're in actual combat.

      I don’t know what riots you’re talking about, the pension protests in France? The farmers protests in Germany, Belgium and the UK?

      There are farmers rioting all over France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Poland, and Germany. The videos are all over the internet. Do you live in some alternate reality?

      Anti-Russian sentiment is very strong, especially in Eastern Europe, and most of the large nations are likely to have enough volunteers to remove the need for conscription in the mid term.

      Russophobia is not going to be enough to get people to go and die in a war. As the plitico link in my last reply explains, people are actually leaving the army right now. And if Europeans are going to conscript then at that point people are being forced to fight against their will by their regimes.

      Ammunition production across Europe has significantly increased, and continues to increase, the price has gone up per shell sure, but that doesn’t contradict an increase in production.

      I provided you actual numbers that show this is not the case to any significant degree. Ammunition production in Europe is a joke.

      The source you linked doesn’t place losses “around” 47k, it established 47k as the absolute minimum, and provides a higher estimate based on excess mortality. With roughly 100k dead, you’d normally expect to see 2-3x that in injuries rending personnel unfit for service with modern battlefield medicine, and 300-400k gone is more than the entire Russian active combat personnel before the escalation of the war in 2022.

      I'm not sure how you managed to jump from 47k to 100k here, and of course people who are injured mostly end up returning to service after recovery.

      Assuming it is a bluff. Russia is already bordered by NATO in the Baltic for hundreds of miles, it can survive a NATO Ukraine in the same way that China has survived being surrounded by US allies along it’s entire eastern border.

      After spending two years at war, Russia isn't just going to give up and go home at this point. Hopefully people who are in actual European militaries aren't utter imbeciles, and they can see what an utter disaster a war with Russia would be for Europe. Unfortunately, there are lots of imbeciles in EU politics and within the general EU public, so can't rule this scenario out entirely.