This article somewhat misses the point about why people are so concerned about crime, in my view. We have recently had a number of high profile, very public, violent crimes in the last few months. Dairy robberies, ram raids, shootings in the middle of the CBD, motorists being beaten by dirt bikers.
It's honestly unhelpful and insensitive to say "statistically speaking" when people are seeing this happen all around them.
The Wellington CBD, for example, is definitely less safe than a few years ago, with people getting aggressive with you for no reason. We also had a violent robbery of a jeweller's shop quite recently as well.
It's almost as if we need to decouple our feelings of crime, and rely on actual data.
It's also easy to pick and choose the data you use to support your case, for example saying we have less crime, while particular types of crime, or crime in a particular area, is on the way up.
Lies and statistics.
Thank you for that.
I have re-read your original article, and I think it's point is that the way crime is reported on does not match the reality of the situation, and that the 'tough on crime/soft on crime' rhetoric currently in the news cycle is not new and has nothing to do with actual crime rates. To this i agree.
As to the recent crime rates, they are overall trending downwards. However, as the article you linked pointed out, certain types of crime are on the rise. I would say it is important to try and understand why this is the case, and address the underlying causes, rather than increasing sentences or other harsher punishments. My reasoning is that we have been on the right track with our current approach, so we should not throw out the rehabilitation mindset just because it feels good to punish criminals more harshly.
But people are not "seeing this happen all around them", that's the point of the article you linked.
People are largely seeing it blasted to their eyeballs via the media that makes it feel like its everywhere, even when crime rates are in a decades long decline.
Personally I find these cyclical crime panics unhelpful and insensitive because theyre used by cynical politicians to whip up fear, and push 'tough on crime' that don't make us safer.
As per the story I linked to in response to another commenter, violent crime is actually on the rise.
Its also true that Wellington cbd is bleak outside of lambton, combine that with the cost of living, and there's more people in front of you that aren't in the rat race, living in close proximity.
I think that a lot of these problems existed before readings and such closed but they weren't on the street in front of you.
What really didn't help was the emergency accommodation, it brought a bunch of people into the CBD that otherwise would have been somewhere with a much lower cost of living.
There's always been homeless around Wellington, but I certainly don't remember them having the attitude they do now.
high profile, very public, violent crimes in the last few months.
This is what the media chooses to show.
If "statistically speaking" crime isn't trending up, but it's being sensationalised to the point that people feel like it is, what's the actual issue?
If you're essentially saying here that the facts don't matter if they contradict peoples feelings, shouldn't we at least be looking into who is influencing peoples feelings in the first place and what they have to gain?
The story you link literally says:
"the varying ways to count and then interpret police data means it’s worth taking all claims about crime rates rising or falling with a pinch of salt"
They go to great pains to point out that the data is not recorded consistently, so drawing any conclusions from it is fraught.
I'm waiting for a party to say they are going to be tough on drugs, then we've heard all the cyclical bullshit.
We already are reasonably tough on drugs though, at least the class A stuff.
