Turkiye tried joining the EU for decades. The Europeans would never accept them no matter how long it took or what Turkiye offered. Turks are too Muslim and too Asian for them; despite abolishing the caliphate, secularizing and adopting the Latin script.
Now though Turkiye can look southward and find prosperity without strings attached. None of the BRICS members share a culture or religion, a more diverse and global community where Turkiye can join as it is.
Turkiye is a regional power, it has a strong manufacturing base, and while a NATO member and dependent on the West they also have an advanced military industry and that was demonstrated during TAI TF Kaan maiden flight.
I recall there was an interview with the Belarusian ambassador last year where he mentions an interesting point. Belarus found that after they started refocusing their trade towards the east, their trade volume overall was lower, but their profit from trade went up. This is an indication that the west was basically ripping them off.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8XuoX32ml4
I personally can't see how NATO can last much longer after the Ukraine debacle.
Sadly it will continue, especially in Europe, and they might also force their Asian client states to join.
I think it'll hobble along for a few more years, but I don't think there's going to be any faith in the project going forward. If Trump gets elected, he's almost certainly going to pull funding and force Europe to pay. That will in turn cause a bigger rift across the Atlantic. The liberal centre in France and Germany is already collapsing, and where they go the rest will follow.
Expanding might be difficult but I do not see Europe and America breaking military ties. Now that the hegemony is being challenged they are stepping up military investment.
I think if US pulls money that will be the end, and US has to pick its battles at this point. Stepping up military investment is also driving austerity in Europe which is leading to a backlash against NATO. Hence why we're seeing nationalist parties gaining a lot of support. For example, RN in France and AfD in Germany are both openly hostile to NATO.
Most European far right parties have very direct ties with everyone's favorite global influence. Far right parties are easy to control. Spending more on military and right winger-ism are perfect combinations.
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This article goes in a little depth:
"Pro-Israel politicians from the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), including those who are under trial for using literal Nazi slogans, can freely speak on the Israeli war on Palestine under the guise of “fighting anti-Semitism”, but Ghassan Abu-Sittah, the Palestinian surgeon and rector of Glasgow University who worked in Gaza hospitals and documented war crimes during this latest Israeli assault on the Palestinian enclave cannot give his testimony to the German public."
Being pro military and pro Israel doesn't mean these parties will be pro NATO. What's far more likely is that they'll try to build some kind of European military around France and Germany.
