Earlier I was in a thread talking about the possibility of a Civil War and what that could look like. I wanted to expand more on it, especially on what I believe the factions will look like from a materialist perspective.

Understanding the different players, their material interests and the contradictions between them is imperative to really understand what a conflict could look like. I can tell you right now, it isn't going to be what you've dreamt of. The left isn't organized or armed in any serious capacity and the state could crush any leftist uprising immediately if it took the gloves off. If we have any role to play, it will be as a secondary partner in a temporary United Front led by people we hate. Unfortunately, I don't think it will bring the revolution, but might position us better for when it does happen.

Class Factions:

• Cosmopolitan/Haute Bourgeoisie: This is a faction of Capital that is physically concentrated in the cities. These are international capitalists that extract profits not only from the domestic population, but primarily from abroad. Most of these people are the definition of Imperialists. Those of them that do make most of their profits domestically, generally don't produce anything physical, but rather provide services or intangible products (software, movies, insurance etc). They are represented by what used to be the "Washington Consensus", a coalition of Democrats and "Moderate" republicans with focus on global free trade, the financialization of production and capital, and maintaining the supremacy of the US-dominated International Market. Neocons and Neoliberals.

• Provincial/National Bourgeoisie: This is a faction of Capital that is mostly, though not entirely rural/suburban. They generally extract profits from a domestic population, though of course there are always exceptions. They're made up of Heavy Industry like Construction, Logistics, Resource Extraction, Agribusiness etc, as well as Small Capital (who I will detail). They have seen a lot of their profits eroded away by free trade deals, high domestic wages, environmental regulations, debt to international banks, and the overall financialization of the economy. To some of these capitalists, public policy can be an existential threat to their business. There were logging communities in WA that were completely destroyed due to regulations protecting the spotted owl, for instance. These people feel aggrieved by the way the economy is going and despite being literally bourgeois themselves, they see coastal liberals as the real elites (which is kind of true tbh). This faction is represented by the GOP, more specifically the more right wing segments. Trump is their god. I genuinely think Roger Stone designed Trump's political persona to cater to these people directly.

• Small Capital: Part of the National Bourgeoisie. Anyone from used boat dealership owners to guys that own a regional trucking company with 100 drivers etc. Regulations hit them harder than big companies since they don't have as big a pool of profits to absorb the effects. These people have also lost out in free trade agreements and have especially been hit hard by financialization of the economy as they don't have access to massive chunks of capital. Companies like Amazon have been bleeding these people dry for years and covid has basically been a nuke right into their livelihood.

Armed Groups (state and non-state):

• Pigs: local cops are generally loyal to their local government which is loyal to the local bourgeoisie, which tends to be Small Capital or National Bourgeoisie. Big city cops are kind of an anomaly. They are usually big enough and large enough to almost feel like their own independent army. They don't care as much what the local government says, even if they do work for them. Lots of big city politicians are terrified of their police force.

• FBI/ATF/NSA/CIA: there are factions within but generally the FBI upholds the interests of the Haute Bourgeoisie. This is why libs love them and chuds think they're deep state globalists. They don't like Right Wing Extremists any more than they like leftists, but they don't go after them as much because they actually have establishment support from the NB and other law enforcement. These people would never see themselves as "loyal to the president", only to "America", which really means the Haute Bougie.

• DHS/US Marshalls/other feds: a lot of federal law enforcement agencies are basically loyal to the president, but are especially loyal to Trump. There are tens of thousands of these people that will listen to Trump no matter what.

-The Military: the military is a mixed bag and also the scariest player in the who situation. They have nukes, drones, warplanes, bombs etc and could literally kill the whole planet if they wanted to. Soldiers are generally loyal to their commanding officers, though a lot of them are diehard chuds who probably believe in Qanon. The officers generally support the Haute Bourgeoisie, especially those who have served under multiple presidents, but there are always fascists embedded in the military in every country. They think they're apolitical but really they're just nonpartisan. I think if a boog was to kick off, there would be a schism in the military.

Okay, so that was a lot, but I think understanding the players is more important than how things will come together when the time comes. It can give an understanding of how different groups might act and where their loyalties might lay. Personally, I think there will be a big shitshow surrounding the elections next week, and and even bigger one in 4 years. No matter who wins, chuds will spend all their disposable income on guns and ammo over the next 4 years, and I think whoever is elected will try to purge key government institutions of their opposition. Trump did this with the judiciary but I think we will see it in the Military and federal law enforcement. Trump has said he will purge the FBI, DOD, CIA and NSA if he gets reelected. Biden would probably purge DHS, replacing purged officials with neocon republicans to show they're not partisan purges lol.

I don't know what will set off a civil war but it is at its core going to be a conflict between the Haute Bourgeoisie, which generally has power over the economy and the "deep state" in government and military, and the National Bourgeoisie, which has roving bands of loyal chuds, basically all local and state cops, DHS and probably a lot of rank-and-file military and some potential renegade military officers when the time comes.

At some point, something will set everything off, possibly a stolen election or failing to steal an election. Something like the nightmare scenarios of the upcoming election might happen in 2024, such as the supreme court deciding the election or one party refusing to accept the results and states trying to secede. This is going to sound really unlikely and kinda out there, but I think we could genuinely see clashes between branches of law enforcement. This happened a few times at the end of the USSR where cops and KGB or cops from a different town would have legit firefights with each other. It's hard to think of a scenario that would lead to this, but it could happen. Pulling it out of my ass but perhaps there are major left wing riots in DC and the DHS and cops begin to fire on them and the military is called in but they decide to defend the people. This would probably result in defections from the military as some people feel they are trying to coup the right wing govt or that the military is controlled by the deep state or whatever. The cops and feds would probably be enraged. Probably a lot of them would quit and join RW militias. We really have no idea, I just want to highlight the fact that there are different armed factions in the State that support different factions of the bourgeoisie, and if this really gets serious they will likely go after each other.

Where do we fit in? If there is a civil war, it will probably be one of terror attacks, that escalate to armed street skirmishes, occupying govt buildings and eventually even taking territory. It is not going to be the revolution. Proles will be terrified and will just want things to go back to normal. If the war gets really intense, the one way we could use it to our advantage, as much as i fucking hate to say it, is to enter into a United Front with the lib bourgeoisie. There is no way they would let us have any actual governmental power, but they could possibly allow us to be something akin to the Partisans in WWII or one of the left wing factions in the Spanish Civil War. They could provide us with some resources to wage guerilla warfare on chuds, especially if they begin occupying territory. I only think this would be allowed if things were really fucking bad. Libs do NOT like us, and hate the idea of letting us be armed but they might do it out of desperation. If this happens, it will be our number two priority (after smoking chuds) to spread positive propaganda about ourselves as brave resistance fighters, again painting ourselves as the modern day Partisans. Communists were extremely popular in liberated countries after WWII because they were seen as freedom fighters. At the end, no matter who wins, we should hide all weapons. All of this is hypothetical but we really need to brace for something wild like this, because it's looking likely. Maybe we can get something out of it but we certainly aren't going to seize power :deeper-sadness: