Maybe, but i think there is some truth to it. Ukraine has lost most of defense systems, drones and shells. Russia is waiting for winter or just they are not so much interested in taking kiev.
An article from a few weeks back. I think about this a lot.
"Unfortunately, we still have a lot of people who do not understand the true nature of what is happening or misjudge it. It is for this reason that we constantly hear about Putin's slowness and indecision. Some people do not really understand the true meaning of what is happening, others are simply trying to split our society in this way.
Do not consider what is happening as a local conflict on the territory of a neighboring state. In fact, we see a confrontation between the collective West on the one hand and Russia on the other. And we must understand that this conflict will not end in a draw. It will definitely end with the victory of one of the parties. There are no other options. No peace talks, whether possible or impossible in principle, should mislead you. If they do happen, they will carry only two meanings: it will either be a pause for regrouping forces and additional training, or it will be someone's surrender. Once again, this is about the collective West and Russia.
You can treat a possible pause now in different ways. And here you should understand that the main thing is not the pause itself, but its conditions and how each side uses it. So both the West and Russia can get positive things for themselves, and it is not at all a fact that the KZ uses it better than we do.
So far, Russia is clearly winning in the confrontation. Winning isn't just about territories. Not even so much them. The main thing is different. How much each party's resource is exhausted. And here the resource of Russia is not only not exhausted, but also increases every month. At this time, the West's resources are weakening, despite the fact that they have already given almost everything they could to our opponents. Now the last argument remains in the form of F 16.
This argument is not so much important for the operation as it is dangerous for the security of our country. After all, the main task of these supplies will be to ensure the ability to strike with long-range missiles. And we must understand that this is the last argument of the West. If it doesn't work, there are only two options left. Either open entry into the conflict, or capitulation on Russia's terms.
But it is important to understand that this step is not aimed at the theater of operations itself. With all due respect to the F16, this outdated model will not make a significant change in the balance of power. Here the goal is quite different.
In combination with the statements of our enemy about the preparation of almost 200 thousand UAVs, it is not difficult to guess what the main goals the West sets for itself. They don't need a breakthrough in the Theater of Operations, they need a breakthrough in the situation inside Russia. They are well aware that this is the only way they can achieve victory.
Their plan is very simple. Carry out strikes on Russian territory so that they have a wide public response. And not only media, but also so let's say natural. The expectation is that if Russians living in a fairly large area of the country suddenly feel unprotected, this will lead, if not to direct unrest, then at least to problems for Putin in the presidential election.
So you don't have to be a great visionary to assume that the main impact will fall on the period before the presidential election. And for this purpose, preparatory work is currently underway in the West.
But Russia and its leadership are well aware of this. So, they are preparing for this in every possible way. Even the statement of Shoigu during the inspection of defense plants, about the need to build up the radar station, says this. After all, radar is more about defense.
Well, the main step in preparing the country to repel this provocation was the appointment of General Surovikin to the post of head of the coordinating committee on Air defense issues under the Council of the CIS Defense Ministry. And we must understand that this step is absolutely logical.
General Surovikin has already shown himself adept at building defenses on the ground. The so-called "Surovikin line" has become an insurmountable obstacle in the path of our enemies. And this is not just our opinion. Almost all Western experts say this with one voice.
Now it's time to create something similar in the sky to protect us from the actions of the West. But the most remarkable thing about this is that we are talking about the coordination of air defense systems not only in Russia, but also in the entire CIS. In simple words, all air defense systems that are located on the territory of the CIS countries (naturally included in the CSTO) will be involved. But first of all, of course, we are talking about Belarus. After all, it is from this direction that we should expect the greatest threat to our territory, which the recent events in Pskov have only confirmed.
In my opinion, Surovikin has enough time to organize everything at the proper level. There is no doubt about his abilities. And if they are also supported by the necessary supplies of air defense systems and radars, then the enemy is waiting for the same thing that we are now seeing on the ground.
It is very important for Russia to prevent the West from implementing its plan. And I will remind you once again that it is designed for you and me. So that we can panic. And here you need to understand that there is no fence without "holes" and no air defense system gives 100% results. So some trouble may well happen. And here, for the country, our correct response to such possible events is no less important than the work of our military-industrial complex and Surovikin."
Yeah, fat chance. I'm more inclined to believe in betrayal by Russian national bourgeoisie than that. Let's not pretend situation in Russia isn't difficult and that it's not getting more difficult due to aforementioned bourgeoisie. Gas prices keep rising, food prices keep rising (basic stuff, like buckwheat or macaroni). The talking heads keep talking about needing to expand industry and ramp up military production, but in the same breath admit a deficit of trained personnel (guess what, someone has to operate the machinery), and in the same breath still refuse to raise salaries. Why would someone go to be a welder or CNC machine operator, when they could go be a yandex food courier for the same money, with the same hours, and relatively less hassle? Capitalism, baby. Likewise the bourgeoisie - why not tear down the production line for short term profit? Why not demand more funds for existing lines? It's not like the government could refuse.
And now there's the threat of UAVs and bombs and whatnot. There's word that the ATACMS provided by the USA will have cluster warheads - as opposed to "normal" ones, that could be used against hard targets, like bunkers. Then why clusters? They're terrific at tearing apart unarmoured vehicles and human flesh. That's why.
Apologies for the rant. Point is, the west is unlikely to capitulate. Instead we'll just see more terror weapons. Them trickling down in such a meager fashion seems to also be on purpose. It's going to be jets to lob missiles at Crimea (look at the recent Sevastopol strike), long range missiles to murder civilians in Belgorod and Tver. AFU has already used chemical weapons on small drones - big warheads are the next step. White phosphorus. Dirty bombs. No cost is too great to maintain the hegemony.
I just thought offensives were pretty hard in the winter because of the cold and especially all the snow/ice, but rivers freezing seems like the only advantage to me
Tbh i dont blame russia for not wanting to launch huge offensives, ultimately they cost a lot of lives and they’re quite content to just slowly grind them down. Still, this does seem like an optimal time if they’re going to do one with what Soviet Snake said, especially since Europe will probably struggle with heating their homes again this year I assume
Snow flattens the terrain and makes it easier for tanks to move, as far as I know, which gives Russia quite a big advantage since they have a lot of them and Ukraine doesn't. Moreover, it requires preparation and special equipment which Ukraine also probably lacks, and which is easier to transport for Russia.
Autumn is the rainy season in Ukraine/Russia and it's even called Rasputitsa - Season of Bad Roads because of all the ground turning into mud. Better to attack across hard ice than soft mud.
In summer (edit: spring actually) thawing turns everything into mud. Wars there were always waged in summer and mechanized warfare with modern logistics also make winter more possible.
Late spring is when war season starts, traditionally it was around may iirc, also due to every army there being based on a lot of horses which needed to graze.
deleted by creator
Maybe, but i think there is some truth to it. Ukraine has lost most of defense systems, drones and shells. Russia is waiting for winter or just they are not so much interested in taking kiev.
An article from a few weeks back. I think about this a lot.
"Unfortunately, we still have a lot of people who do not understand the true nature of what is happening or misjudge it. It is for this reason that we constantly hear about Putin's slowness and indecision. Some people do not really understand the true meaning of what is happening, others are simply trying to split our society in this way.
Do not consider what is happening as a local conflict on the territory of a neighboring state. In fact, we see a confrontation between the collective West on the one hand and Russia on the other. And we must understand that this conflict will not end in a draw. It will definitely end with the victory of one of the parties. There are no other options. No peace talks, whether possible or impossible in principle, should mislead you. If they do happen, they will carry only two meanings: it will either be a pause for regrouping forces and additional training, or it will be someone's surrender. Once again, this is about the collective West and Russia.
You can treat a possible pause now in different ways. And here you should understand that the main thing is not the pause itself, but its conditions and how each side uses it. So both the West and Russia can get positive things for themselves, and it is not at all a fact that the KZ uses it better than we do.
So far, Russia is clearly winning in the confrontation. Winning isn't just about territories. Not even so much them. The main thing is different. How much each party's resource is exhausted. And here the resource of Russia is not only not exhausted, but also increases every month. At this time, the West's resources are weakening, despite the fact that they have already given almost everything they could to our opponents. Now the last argument remains in the form of F 16.
This argument is not so much important for the operation as it is dangerous for the security of our country. After all, the main task of these supplies will be to ensure the ability to strike with long-range missiles. And we must understand that this is the last argument of the West. If it doesn't work, there are only two options left. Either open entry into the conflict, or capitulation on Russia's terms.
But it is important to understand that this step is not aimed at the theater of operations itself. With all due respect to the F16, this outdated model will not make a significant change in the balance of power. Here the goal is quite different.
In combination with the statements of our enemy about the preparation of almost 200 thousand UAVs, it is not difficult to guess what the main goals the West sets for itself. They don't need a breakthrough in the Theater of Operations, they need a breakthrough in the situation inside Russia. They are well aware that this is the only way they can achieve victory.
Their plan is very simple. Carry out strikes on Russian territory so that they have a wide public response. And not only media, but also so let's say natural. The expectation is that if Russians living in a fairly large area of the country suddenly feel unprotected, this will lead, if not to direct unrest, then at least to problems for Putin in the presidential election. So you don't have to be a great visionary to assume that the main impact will fall on the period before the presidential election. And for this purpose, preparatory work is currently underway in the West.
But Russia and its leadership are well aware of this. So, they are preparing for this in every possible way. Even the statement of Shoigu during the inspection of defense plants, about the need to build up the radar station, says this. After all, radar is more about defense.
Well, the main step in preparing the country to repel this provocation was the appointment of General Surovikin to the post of head of the coordinating committee on Air defense issues under the Council of the CIS Defense Ministry. And we must understand that this step is absolutely logical.
General Surovikin has already shown himself adept at building defenses on the ground. The so-called "Surovikin line" has become an insurmountable obstacle in the path of our enemies. And this is not just our opinion. Almost all Western experts say this with one voice.
Now it's time to create something similar in the sky to protect us from the actions of the West. But the most remarkable thing about this is that we are talking about the coordination of air defense systems not only in Russia, but also in the entire CIS. In simple words, all air defense systems that are located on the territory of the CIS countries (naturally included in the CSTO) will be involved. But first of all, of course, we are talking about Belarus. After all, it is from this direction that we should expect the greatest threat to our territory, which the recent events in Pskov have only confirmed.
In my opinion, Surovikin has enough time to organize everything at the proper level. There is no doubt about his abilities. And if they are also supported by the necessary supplies of air defense systems and radars, then the enemy is waiting for the same thing that we are now seeing on the ground.
It is very important for Russia to prevent the West from implementing its plan. And I will remind you once again that it is designed for you and me. So that we can panic. And here you need to understand that there is no fence without "holes" and no air defense system gives 100% results. So some trouble may well happen. And here, for the country, our correct response to such possible events is no less important than the work of our military-industrial complex and Surovikin."
https://vk.com/wall-46217147_238837
Yeah, fat chance. I'm more inclined to believe in betrayal by Russian national bourgeoisie than that. Let's not pretend situation in Russia isn't difficult and that it's not getting more difficult due to aforementioned bourgeoisie. Gas prices keep rising, food prices keep rising (basic stuff, like buckwheat or macaroni). The talking heads keep talking about needing to expand industry and ramp up military production, but in the same breath admit a deficit of trained personnel (guess what, someone has to operate the machinery), and in the same breath still refuse to raise salaries. Why would someone go to be a welder or CNC machine operator, when they could go be a yandex food courier for the same money, with the same hours, and relatively less hassle? Capitalism, baby. Likewise the bourgeoisie - why not tear down the production line for short term profit? Why not demand more funds for existing lines? It's not like the government could refuse.
And now there's the threat of UAVs and bombs and whatnot. There's word that the ATACMS provided by the USA will have cluster warheads - as opposed to "normal" ones, that could be used against hard targets, like bunkers. Then why clusters? They're terrific at tearing apart unarmoured vehicles and human flesh. That's why.
Apologies for the rant. Point is, the west is unlikely to capitulate. Instead we'll just see more terror weapons. Them trickling down in such a meager fashion seems to also be on purpose. It's going to be jets to lob missiles at Crimea (look at the recent Sevastopol strike), long range missiles to murder civilians in Belgorod and Tver. AFU has already used chemical weapons on small drones - big warheads are the next step. White phosphorus. Dirty bombs. No cost is too great to maintain the hegemony.
Why winter? Waiting for rivers to freeze over?
Yeah why not. Quick attack will break the enemy's backbone. Russia shouldn't wait for another 2 years so that West could replenish the arms.
deleted by creator
I just thought offensives were pretty hard in the winter because of the cold and especially all the snow/ice, but rivers freezing seems like the only advantage to me
Russia has great experience with winter offensives , they shouldn't miss the chance because the west won't .
Tbh i dont blame russia for not wanting to launch huge offensives, ultimately they cost a lot of lives and they’re quite content to just slowly grind them down. Still, this does seem like an optimal time if they’re going to do one with what Soviet Snake said, especially since Europe will probably struggle with heating their homes again this year I assume
Let's see but Russia cannot go for a long war which US and West wants.
Snow flattens the terrain and makes it easier for tanks to move, as far as I know, which gives Russia quite a big advantage since they have a lot of them and Ukraine doesn't. Moreover, it requires preparation and special equipment which Ukraine also probably lacks, and which is easier to transport for Russia.
I actually was unaware of that, thanks for the info!
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is this a reference to some meme im unaware of lol.
deleted by creator
Lmfao wtf??? They’ve got to be fucking with liberals to see how much ridiculous shit they’ll believe without questioning it
the next wunderwaffe is just going to be two cans and a string
Untraceable Radio Units Will Change The Face of the War in Ukraine!
I think they just try to predict next UA wunderwaffe.
ah yeah that makes sense lol
Ukraine isn't as cold as russia
Autumn is the rainy season in Ukraine/Russia and it's even called Rasputitsa - Season of Bad Roads because of all the ground turning into mud. Better to attack across hard ice than soft mud.
Oh for sure but i was more confused about not having waiting for spring/summer
In summer (edit: spring actually) thawing turns everything into mud. Wars there were always waged in summer and mechanized warfare with modern logistics also make winter more possible.
true, although does the mud last for the entirety of the spring? (also you typed summer instead of spring 😅 )
It's also muddy during winter
It's just muddy
Late spring is when war season starts, traditionally it was around may iirc, also due to every army there being based on a lot of horses which needed to graze.
hmm alright thanks for the info! I'm not super into military stuff so i more go based off of vibes/whatever random tidbits I've read in the past
The first book of Sienkiewicz's trilogy suddenly makes a lot more sense.