LargePenis [he/him]

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Joined 4 years ago
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Cake day: January 22nd, 2021

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  • That's a good analysis of the situation. The Jihadis expected that they could rule a devastated country through vibes and positive energy, where people would stop complaining about the complete destruction of the economy simply because Assad was gone. The electricity situation is horrendous, no one except some returning expats has any money, and even the Turks and the Qataris are realising that the country is basically a corpse, all they can do is send aid because there are no institutions or functioning economic organs that can cooperate in any larger projects to rebuild anything. The state has zero control over the fertile Euphrates lands nor the oil, which will remain unsolved because the SDF aren't that interested in cooperating with the Jihadis. Add Israel's continuing sabotage of the state by the constant bombing and the incursions into southern Syria. The situation is basically fucked and will continue to deteriorate, HTS can't consolidate power without their hard-line Jihadis murdering people in the streets, which will only embolden internal and external enemies. A bankrupt state can't fight multiple battles if it's too poor to even pay pensions and operate border crossings.


  • The language and symbols used by the "resistance" in Latakia today are completely Iranian/Axis-coded. The coverage by Iranian media also seems way bigger than usual and suggests that the Iranians are fully backing this movement and probably smuggling weapons to them through the chaos of the Lebanese and Iraqi borders and SDF-controlled areas. Don't expect anything from Russia, they will be on the sidelines watching for this, and Iran will also not take an official supporting stance as long as this doesn't snowball into a larger armed confrontation.



  • What is happening in Syria is pure insanity, here's my little breakdown of the wider geopolitical situation from what I'm understanding from scrolling through Arab Facebook and Telegram today.

    There are basically two opposing sides when it comes to how to do deal with the new Jihadi government in Syria. One side is pro-cooperation and consolidation of the new government, and the other side is pro-chaos and making it as hard as possible for the new regime to gain any legitimacy both internally in Syria and internationally. Here's how the situation currently looks if we're talking major regional players:

    Pro-regime: Saudi, Qatar, Sunni Syrians, most other Arab states and Turkey

    Pro-chaos: Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Hezbollah, SDF, minority Syrians and Israel

    So we have a rare situation where the interests of Iran and Israel converge and they're both interested in making any effective ruling difficult for the Jihadis. The Israelis' partners in this clusterfuck are the Druze in Southern Syria, and some possible backdoor collaboration with Syrian Kurds in Eastern Syria. The Iranians still have good relations with former SAA members and are popular with Alawites and other Shia-adjacent groups in Syria, which is why they're backing them in Western Syria on the coast. Iranian and Axis media also seems to have shifted towards a more positive coverage of the SDF. I personally don't even have a take at this point, this is all developing way too quickly.


  • Syria has already speedrunned the 2003-2006 consolidation stage of post-2003 Iraq straight into the free-for-all Call of Duty multiplayer stage of 2006-2007. It's basically open war in the entire south and now the coast. A Hezbollah-Iran-backed group called the Military Council for the Liberation of Syria has suddenly appeared and they've done quite a major operation today against the new Jihadi regime, killing tens of fighters and kidnapping many more. I just wish Assad wasn't a complete dumbass and was more effective in killing the Jihadi dreams earlier, look we're today for the sake of Allah.


  • cuck n chad ranking: blast from the past edition

    Note: RUS vs UKR back in first row

    Gigachad Chad Neutral Beta (Fe)Male Virgin Cuck
    Daily map enjoyers (still caring about Russia capturing a treeline in Bumfuckskoya after three years makes us chads) Putin (riding out the global war against him by basically doing the same thing for three years, every day is better than the day before for him) Ukrainian diaspora (I respect the sheer shamelessness of cheerleading for a war that you watch on TV while driving a taxi in Berlin and going to nightclubs there) Medvedev (somehow the most unhinged poster in this entire war, somebody needs to take his phone away) Zelensky (getting the cuck treatment in the US by being the most annoying person to ever exist
    The people of Gaza (Allah's bravest creation, just their existence and steadfastness makes the zionists shake) Erdogan (no person in the world gets more undeserved Ws than him, somehow comes out as a winner in everything) Donald Trump (the whole Zelensky saga is hilarious and a net positive, but he's so unhinged and is leading the world into some fucked up territory) Jolani/Sharaa (screaming about jihad and justice until Israel is taking his territory, then it's pure silence) UAE (on a streak of multiple Ls after their loss in Yemen, loss in Sudan and their failure to save Assad)
    Hassan Nasrallah (permanent gigachad spot for the Master of the South, I miss him every single day) Sudanese Army (successfully kicking out the RSF maniacs day by day, respect to those dudes) Qatar (the most confusing country in the world, made sure that Gaza could breath with the ceasefire, but the biggest backers of Jolani at the same time) JD Vance (this guy is so fucking annoying, who the fuck allowed a 4chan poster to become vice-president of the most powerful empire in the world) the EU (never seen such a cucked organization in my life, they only exist to bet on the wrong horses and take Ls)



  • This war can only end on the battleground, anything else is wildly unrealistic and I've said this since negotiations started. Both sides are way too far away when it comes to possible compromises. Russia can't end the war if they don't control the vast majority of annexed territory, which is very far away as long as they don't control Zaporozhye or Kramatorsk or Kherson. Ukraine's military situation is bad, but not desperate enough to sign away 20% of the their land in order to stop the bleeding, they still have at least a year of fighting in them and who knows what will happen in that year.


  • Ramadan starts tomorrow, so Ramadan Mubarak to all you nerds whether you celebrate or not.

    This week has been all over the place for me emotionally, the sadness over Nasrallah since the funeral has been honestly paralysing. Every reminder is painful and I think I needed to cry it out, because I shed a few tears yesterday when I was alone without my wife and it helped. What broke me is a video of a mass gathering near his blessed grave with thousands of people reciting an eulogy for him. I wish I was there.

    Interesting news that caught my eyes in the last few days:

    • Ukrainian Kursk bulge is about to burst. Russians have collapsed the northern section around Malaya Loknya and have moved into Sumy Oblast inside Ukraine in order to cut the only supply road.

    • SAF success against the UAE-backed RSF continues in Sudan. Most RSF positions in Northern Khartoum have been captured and they're now moving quickly in Kordofan as well. The most important battle will then start towards the heart of RSF territory in Darfur.

    • M27 rebels and Rwandan forces are moving quickly in the DRC. I need someone to explain this war, because I genuinely have no deeper understanding than the absolute basics when it comes to the DR Congo vs Rwanda beef.

    • Ukrainians seem to have launched a counterattack in Toretsk and recaptured significant portion of the city. It's really unclear if they really control these parts or if they're just driving in straight lines into the city and then entrenching themselves in random high-rise building. It's classic Russian mismanagement anyway, they prematurely celebrated victory on that sector and kept it lightly-defended for some reason.


  • It's the Lebanese Civil War playbook all over again. An invasion to protect Maronites in the south, then establishment of the comprador South Lebanon Army and their microstate, which stayed intact until Hezbollah kicked their asses and sent them out. This time they're invading Syria to protect the Druze, and will probably set up some comprador Druze force along the way. And just like the Lebanese state didn't do shit in the 80s and 90s until Hezbollah fixed the issue, the new Syrian state will sit and do nothing until some resistance group gathers strength and starts doing something about the issue.


  • Two points quickly:

    • Israel is penetrating deeper into Syrian territory. Appeasement will never work with the Zionist entity, despite how much HTS and the new Syrian regime have cucked for Israel and the West

    • It's so funny to compare the realities that 3rd world leftists live in compared to especially American leftists. I follow some Palestinian and Lebanese communists on twitter and their whole feeds are filled with actual tangible action and raising money for the PFLP and Hezbollah. They're doing communist camps and having Irish communists over and stuff like that. Then I click on American leftist profiles and they're retweeting clips of Hasan Piker owning Ethan Klein. Western leftism is so dead, what a tragedy.