Here's the explanation. Most recent recessions have been self-manufactured through credit expansion and rapid deflation through interest rate rises. Right now they're holding steady. If they raise interest rates this year, there would be a chance of recession. But here's your explanation of why they won't raise rates this year: the fed's job is to be seen as a non political actor. If they manufacture a recession in an election year, they come off as favouring the challenger, instead of the incumbent. So, they're not going to meddle with interest rates this year.
Zero chance of recession this year.
Here's the explanation. Most recent recessions have been self-manufactured through credit expansion and rapid deflation through interest rate rises. Right now they're holding steady. If they raise interest rates this year, there would be a chance of recession. But here's your explanation of why they won't raise rates this year: the fed's job is to be seen as a non political actor. If they manufacture a recession in an election year, they come off as favouring the challenger, instead of the incumbent. So, they're not going to meddle with interest rates this year.