Guerre en Ukraine : de la prudence à l'affolement… Ce que cache le virage de Macron
www.marianne.net
Quelle mouche a piqué le président au moment d'envisager l'envoi de troupes en Ukraine ? Plusieurs rapports confidentiels défense expliquent « l’affolement » de l’Élysée, où les chefs de partis sont invités ce jeudi 7 mars à évoquer la question. Sur le front, les Russes sont en position de force. Fallait-il pour autant, face à Poutine, brandir une menace intenable ?

TLDR

  1. Western planners underestimated Russian strength and assumed their defense lines would collapse upon breach.
  2. Ukrainian brigade training was insufficient, too administrative, and short.
  3. Western equipment is considered less efficient than Soviet due to maintenance issues and degraded mode capabilities.
  4. The report emphasizes Russian superiority in defensive tactics with heavy machinery for fortification.
  5. The Russian army is recognized as the technical reference for defensive strategies.
  6. Western press reported Moscow's lack of interest in soldiers' lives, but confidential reports suggest otherwise.
  7. Russians practice "Maskirovka," appearing weak to hide their true strength.
  8. A stampede occurred during the loss of Avdiivka on February 17.
  9. Macron presented other reports to political opponents, challenging Western press's underestimation of Russian capabilities.
  10. Ukrainian general staff lacks a critical mass of ground forces capable of breaking through Russian defensive lines.
  11. The most serious error is seeking exclusively military solutions to end hostilities.
  12. A French officer concludes that Ukraine cannot win the war militarily due to insufficient forces.
  13. Ukrainian soldiers' fighting spirit is affected by ongoing conflict.
  14. Zelensky needs 35,000 men per month but isn't recruiting half of them while Putin draws from a pool of 30,000 volunteers each month.
  15. The Ukrainian failure at Avdiivka demonstrates that Kiev is not capable of re-establishing the collapsing front with an "elite" brigade's dispatch.
  • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
    ·
    9 months ago

    There has always been a non-military solution... Russia can go the fuck home and stop trying to invade other countries.

    Wouldn't that just lead to the citizens of the Donbas Republics being forced to fight alone against Ukraine and its remaining far-right paramilitaries?

    • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
      ·
      9 months ago

      Then again, Donbas backed by fascist Russia and Ukraine having neonazi groups fighting each other, anti-fascists can't support either. Mathematically considering, Russia's invasion succeeding would promote more fascism to spread. What would prevent them or others in the future?

      • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
        ·
        9 months ago

        Then again, Donbas backed by fascist Russia and Ukraine having neonazi groups fighting each other, anti-fascists can't support either. Mathematically considering, Russia's invasion succeeding would promote more fascism to spread. What would prevent them or others in the future?

        Which Donbas neonazi groups are you talking about? The only one I'm familiar with is Rusich group, which consisted of 30 or so guys. That's less neonazis than you find in single US marine battalion. The other example I can think of is that one Senior Lieutenant who wore the R3ICH operator skull and a valknut while receiving an award. There's been back and forth on that guy and if those patches were looted. The R3ICH skull in particular is heavily associated with the Ukrainian military's neonazis and is sold by the same company that makes Zelensky's famous green clothes, Zelensky himself has been photographed with his bodyguard prominently displaying the R3ICH skull. It was a bad look for the Lt. either way but he's still just one guy.

          • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
            ·
            8 months ago

            Yeah, Azov is a bad look for Ukraine, even though they fight against Russia's fascist forces

            Edit: some seemed to misunderstand. Nazis are always horrible, even when used against a larger threat.

            • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
              ·
              8 months ago

              "The Waffen-SS is a bad look for Germany, even though they fight against Russia's judo-bolshevik forces"

              Did the fact that Zelensky and the entire Canadian Parliament give a standing ovation to a Waffen-SS member cause you any sort of ideological dissonance? Or do you agree with Zelensky that its "normal and cool" for people to support Nazi collaborators?

              • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
                ·
                8 months ago

                No, you skipped the whole thread. There's nothing cool about nazis. They're a plague to everyone. When invading countries and when infighting against the invaders.

                • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
                  ·
                  8 months ago

                  No, you skipped the whole thread. There's nothing cool about nazis. They're a plague to everyone. When invading countries and when infighting against the invaders.

                  That's great, so you would you agree that the US should stop providing money, training, and weapons to Ukraine and its Nazi (and Neonazi) paramilitaries?

                  By the way, here's a source of Zelensky saying it's "normal and cool" for people to think that Stepan Bandera is a hero: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6768

                  • tiredturtle@lemmy.ml
                    ·
                    8 months ago

                    I was just reading about this the other day: Like Bernie wants to stop resourcing Israel, some US politicians had a condition that Azov would not be assisted. But apparently the Pentagon got that overruled

                    • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
                      ·
                      8 months ago

                      I was just reading about this the other day: Like Bernie wants to stop resourcing Israel, some US politicians had a condition that Azov would not be assisted. But apparently the Pentagon got that overruled

                      I think that was way before Israel's current massacres. Congress banned providing direct support to Azov in 2015 and then unbanned direct support in 2016 under pressure from the Pentagon. There might have been another attempted ban after that, I don't remember. Even when the ban was in place it's not like it was hard to get around, they just had the Azov guys join a different battalion for the duration of the training (and wear long sleeves).

                      https://www.thenation.com/article/politics/congress-has-removed-a-ban-on-funding-neo-nazis-from-its-year-end-spending-bill/

      • kookaburra@lemmy.ml
        ·
        9 months ago

        Donbas is part of Ukraine.

        Donbass was part of sovereign pre-2014 Ukrainian state. The people of Donbass will not bow to the ethno-state insurrectionists who overthrew the constitutional goverment. In any case, it's some kind of karma that American fans of post-Maidan Ukraine would have orange bigot imposed on them before the end of this year.

        It means getting their asses out of every part of Ukraine that they’ve been infiltrating, including Crimea too.

        Last census held by Ukraine in 2001 has shown that nearly 60% inhabitants of Crimea were Russians. How you can drive them out without ethnic cleansing? Well, it's obvious that it's impossible to be supportive towards current Ukrainian regime without being at least a bit nazi.

      • MoreAmphibians [none/use name]
        ·
        9 months ago

        Donbas is part of Ukraine. "Russia going home" doesn't mean they just retreat to areas where they already removed a significant portion of the Ukrainian population and replaced them with Russian sympathizers

        You know I've never heard about this. The line I usually hear is Russia has brainwashed the Ukrainians there into becoming "Russia-backed separatists". How much of the population of Donbas has been forcibly removed and are there any reputable western media sources where I can read more about this?