Context: Trump's lawyers are in front of the Supreme Court arguing that presidents cannot be prosecuted for any crimes they commit while in office.
Who knows how the Calvinball refs will decide this one, but if they go Trump's way, Biden has literally no excuse not to assassinate his political rivals.
Biden is actually slightly more popular than Trump with the military
Even 37% of active duty soldiers isn’t nothing. They’d be at a disadvantage, but it’s still possible they’d try. Also the guns per capita among civilian Trump supporters would be a factor. And police especially. They’re basically small militaries at this point anyway.
But I guess the biggest factor to whether a civil war would happen is the reaction of the state governments. Good chance Abbott would be pretty pissed and kind of feel threatened. And probably other Southern state governments.
We’re talking about assassination of a major political rival who is the lead figure of the Republican Party and has a rabid support base, they wouldn’t take that lying down.
Edit: those numbers are also from 2020. In general Biden is down and Trump is up from then, I wouldn’t be surprised if the same was true in the military. Plus a good chunk of neutral troops would probably have loyalty to their state.
Jan 6 made me way less concerned about that.
Red State govs going rogue and the police with them is more of a legit concern.