Belarus: I could see CPB taking over when Lukashenko isn't in charge anymore.
Burkina Faso: Their prime-minister seems to be a communist. Hopefully this means working towards a socialist state.
Cyprus: AKEL is one of the main opposition parties in Cyprus and their candidate for presidency went to the runoff election this year.
Greece: KKE is one of the main opposition parties and they keep growing.
Haiti: There are some revolutionary organisations involved in the protests against the government, maybe they'll succeed.
Swaziland: The CPS is the main opposition to the king's rule.
Taiwan: through reunification with PRC.
What others seem likely to you?
EDIT: I remembered South Africa is a candidate as well, the EFF is getting stronger
On the ones you mentioned:
Belarus and Burkina Faso maybe. Cyprus and Greece definitely not, they are too deeply embedded in the West's system. And Haiti and Swaziland are very unlikely, seeing as there is already looming imperialist intervention in Haiti and i don't know much about Swaziland but the monarchy seems pretty stable there.
Taiwan reunification is an inevitability. It's not a question of if it's just when.
I expect Belarus is very likely as well because they have increasingly strong ties with China now, and they're already nominally communist. Also agree that Taiwan reunification is inevitable at this point.
I think saying a definitely not, may be too hard a swing to the other side as well, the revolution is always our goal and I believe there is always room for hope, might be further in the future of closer to the present, but it should always be on the horizon, and who knows, revolutions are very hard to predict, situations change opportunities come along unexpectedly, but my problem with the parameter the comrade used for measuring likelyhood of such is electoral, and popularity of parties are not the best of measurements, the organization of the population I think is the best one, and burkina faso seems to have people supporting the anti imperialist movement there, but in Greece, the popularity of a party does not necessarily mean the population is organizing towards a change, it is a start but a timid one if you ask me, but it's always nice to see. Again the road we need to build pave and walk on is the organization of the people, it needs to come from the ones on the base of the system, while the ones most affected by the exploitation are still blind by capitalism's shining lights it is never going to be a revolution, the job of the ones of us ML's that are not in that situation is to befriend support and help those that are, to find the shades and see that the lights hide their own oppression and the fact that they are strong, and have all the tools to build their own freedom.
I strongly doubt any country in Europe will have a successful socialist revolution until US imperialism is dismantled
(Taiwan is not a country by any definition)
In terms of self-defense post-revolution: possibly, if it retained a defensive pact with Russia. Whether a revolution is feasible in the next few decades, I can't say
Burkina Faso: Their prime-minister seems to be a communist. Hopefully this means working towards a socialist state.
Add to this the recent countries supporting Niger in a coup, which includes BF and more importantly, Angola, an already existing ML state.
I think we might see a ML super state crop up in the region with an alliance of ML/socialist african countries in the NW and west of Africa.
While I agree with this, Angola is no longer an ML state, it was changed to social democracy on their 3rd congress in December of 1990. Perhaps it has more revolutionary potential though.
Thanks for the context, I didnt know that; critical support still though.
wasn't the MPLA pressurized into becoming more succdem? thanks to the CIA doing CIA things and forcing a civil war in socialist angola
i feel like once usania falls the MPLA could switch back to their original ML self, as it seems like they only liberalized themselves so that the civil war finally stops
Unlike some political parties which used Marxism-Leninism as a cover to gain support in their national liberation struggles, I certainly hold the belief that the MPLA's was authentic in nature. I think naturally of course given the time period of the change, it was during the fall of the Soviet Union, and like most communist parties ideas were being re-evaluated. There's a trend among many communist parties around the world that have transitioned to social-democratic beliefs because of the perceived failures, and the large wave of reaction that followed. I do think the party structure hasn't changed too much, hypothetically some faction could knock the social democrats out, but given the momentum of the largest opposition party UNITA, it's looking more and more unlikely. I feel like the KPRF is more likely to go "Marxist-Leninist" again before I could imagine the MPLA doing so, but who knows.
My understanding is that they have a growing left wing movement. My place of work materially and financially supports Colombian Unions and the developments seem positive.
Not sure if it wil turn out to be ML per se, but I wouldn't count Colombia out from turning into a left wing stronghold.
Not possible. There aren’t any significant real communist parties in Russia
CPRF is literally the second largest party after the ruling one
Controlled opposition. Plus, it's a shell of a proper communist party.
Doesn't do agitprop, nor community work like it should
the KPRF is full of old bureaucrats who would surprise me if they had a communist bone in their body. Perhaps if the upper leadership is purged, but that is unlikely.
There is a nonzero chance of a socialist movement being truly revived, Russia cannot hide from its past for long.
India has a chance, but only if the communist parties band together in a revolutionary coalition against the BJP.
Palestine: Although Hamas is in charge of Gaza, secular ML groups are very large and powerful, there could be some Socialist Islamic pan-arab state
Portugal: large communist presence
Mexico: shit is happening there and a large soft left and rising hard left = funny things???
Nicaragua: Popular ML movement is gaining lots of ground, or regaining as they used to be the ruling party.
Yemen: From last I heard the South Yemen Republic's remains made up a sizeable portion of the Yemenese resistance. Correct me if I am wrong.
Algeria: Idk its cool
South korea: gone because its the DPRK now bitches
The "Communist" Party of India ("Marxist) are reactionaries who have done endless massacres against indigenous and lower caste people. They depend on the state to oppress them (and the revolutionaries currently taking part in the war, who've gained the support of the indigenous, Dalit, and people from other oppressed caste, who have been displaced, their forests getting used for the purposes of profit, and killed).
"All the social chauvinists are now Marxists (Don't laugh)" ~Lenin
