If you start with the premise that it's almost certain no god exists, sure. A fantastical story in the ancient past is only technically more likely than one from yesterday.
But take seriously for a second the possibility that some god might exist. Say we have ironclad proof of some beings worth calling gods. They've appeared, they've done interviews, they've given divine revelation, they've performed godlike miracles. They've told us other gods exist, but they didn't give us a list or anything and we don't know what those other gods might be capable of. Wouldn't that significantly raise the probability that some fantastical ancient story is true? Take the story of Jesus and all the associated miracles and revelations. If we're seriously entertaining the possibility that godlike beings might exist, would it be unreasonable to say there was a 10% chance Jesus was a god? Maybe 15%?
We don't know if god exists. It only makes sense to say that an ancient water-into-wine story is virtually as unlikely as one from two years ago if you assume turning water into wine is impossible, i.e., that god does not exist.
I'm saying to assume that god might exist, because we don't know for sure either way. The hypothetical is to make it easier to assume this. In the hypothetical, we don't know if a god was responsible for the ancient story, but we at least know that's possible.
"It's exceedingly unlikely but technically possible" isn't really taking the possibility seriously. That's what I'm trying to get at -- if you do take the possibility seriously, then you can't as easily dismiss an ancient fantastical story as virtually impossible simply because fantastical stories are virtually impossible. And there's really no way to estimate how likely it is that god exists, anyway, at least not beyond "maybe, maybe not."
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If you start with the premise that it's almost certain no god exists, sure. A fantastical story in the ancient past is only technically more likely than one from yesterday.
But take seriously for a second the possibility that some god might exist. Say we have ironclad proof of some beings worth calling gods. They've appeared, they've done interviews, they've given divine revelation, they've performed godlike miracles. They've told us other gods exist, but they didn't give us a list or anything and we don't know what those other gods might be capable of. Wouldn't that significantly raise the probability that some fantastical ancient story is true? Take the story of Jesus and all the associated miracles and revelations. If we're seriously entertaining the possibility that godlike beings might exist, would it be unreasonable to say there was a 10% chance Jesus was a god? Maybe 15%?
deleted by creator
We don't know if god exists. It only makes sense to say that an ancient water-into-wine story is virtually as unlikely as one from two years ago if you assume turning water into wine is impossible, i.e., that god does not exist.
I'm saying to assume that god might exist, because we don't know for sure either way. The hypothetical is to make it easier to assume this. In the hypothetical, we don't know if a god was responsible for the ancient story, but we at least know that's possible.
deleted by creator
"It's exceedingly unlikely but technically possible" isn't really taking the possibility seriously. That's what I'm trying to get at -- if you do take the possibility seriously, then you can't as easily dismiss an ancient fantastical story as virtually impossible simply because fantastical stories are virtually impossible. And there's really no way to estimate how likely it is that god exists, anyway, at least not beyond "maybe, maybe not."
deleted by creator