How to Predict the Future - Interview of Jason Matheny

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forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de • 1 year ago

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How to Predict the Future

www.statecraft.pub

"We overestimate our ability to keep secrets"

Our interviewee, Jason Matheny, championed research into human judgment and forecasting at the R&D lab for the intelligence community: the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, or IARPA, which he directed from 2015-2018.

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

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