forecasting

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

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copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Tech predictions for 2024 and beyond

1

Tech predictions for 2024 and beyond

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Understanding Subjective Probabilities

1

Understanding Subjective Probabilities

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Predictions market Kalshi sues CFTC for blocking election contracts

1

Predictions market Kalshi sues CFTC for blocking election contracts

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Mantic Monday 12/4/23

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Mantic Monday 12/4/23

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

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What the “superforecasters” predict for major events in 2024

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Prediction Markets Are Not Polls

1

Prediction Markets Are Not Polls

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Markets in fact-checking

1

Markets in fact-checking

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

1

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 11 months ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Prediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?

1

Prediction markets can tell the future. Why is the US so afraid of them?

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Fermi-ization in Forecasting

1

Superforecasters’ Toolbox: Fermi-ization in Forecasting

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

How to Predict the Future - Interview of Jason Matheny

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How to Predict the Future - Interview of Jason Matheny

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting (2021)

1

Prediction Markets in The Corporate Setting (2021)

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Speaker Election: Interviewing the Top Traders

1

Speaker Election: Interviewing the Top Traders

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? (INFER Issue Report October 2023) [pdf]

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Will Iran develop a nuclear weapon? (INFER Issue Report October 2023) [pdf]

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

TDN Launches Prediction Market

1

TDN Launches Prediction Market

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

1

Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Israel’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts

1

Israel’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Social Media in Wartime, Betting on the Future and A.I. Passes the Smell Test

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Social Media in Wartime, Betting on the Future and A.I. Passes the Smell Test

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Comparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal World

1

Comparing Two Forecasters in an Ideal World

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

Predicting, and Knowing What to Predict

1

Predicting, and Knowing What to Predict

copacetic@discuss.tchncs.deM • 1 year ago

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

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