China could face more semiconductor export curbs from the likes of the U.S. and the Netherlands to contain the Asian powerhouse's chip tech, analysts say.
Interesting ideas but it doesn't take into account the extremelly expensive AI chips, and the new AI designed chips as well to a lesser extent I guess.
If they can make enough money with the AI chips, or if the government invests heavily, they could keep their position for longer, but if it doesn't make them enough or if they just distribute this to the shareholders they could indeed face a lack of sales leading to falling income and possible crashes.
Meanwhile, China is already making domestic 7nm chips for AI https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230717PD210/china-7nm-ai-chips.html
and has a huge domestic market https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/china-to-meet-ai-market-demand-with-local-chips/
My expectation is that China will rapidly catch up and will start outpacing western chip companies. It's also worth noting that as western chip market slumps, China will be able to poach a lot of the people. This has already been happening with TSMC and Samsung researchers and engineers moving to China because they got really attractive job offers.
Truly specialized chips for AI have yet to be fully explored. And China will surely be one of the countries to invent them, with the sanctions in place meaning the government will have to prioritize designing new chips.
Interesting ideas but it doesn't take into account the extremelly expensive AI chips, and the new AI designed chips as well to a lesser extent I guess.
If they can make enough money with the AI chips, or if the government invests heavily, they could keep their position for longer, but if it doesn't make them enough or if they just distribute this to the shareholders they could indeed face a lack of sales leading to falling income and possible crashes.
It looks like US hasn't really been doing much of an investment into subsidizing domestic fabs
Meanwhile, China is already making domestic 7nm chips for AI https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230717PD210/china-7nm-ai-chips.html
and has a huge domestic market https://asiatimes.com/2023/12/china-to-meet-ai-market-demand-with-local-chips/
My expectation is that China will rapidly catch up and will start outpacing western chip companies. It's also worth noting that as western chip market slumps, China will be able to poach a lot of the people. This has already been happening with TSMC and Samsung researchers and engineers moving to China because they got really attractive job offers.
Truly specialized chips for AI have yet to be fully explored. And China will surely be one of the countries to invent them, with the sanctions in place meaning the government will have to prioritize designing new chips.