I generally agree with your assessment in the near term. However, the establishment has no solutions to the problems they created, and that means that material conditions will continue to decline. That will be the main radicalizing force in my opinion. When push comes to shove people will care about being able to pay their bills and put food on the table more than any ideology. From what I've read, it seems that Germany doesn't really have an alternative to Russian energy because LNG is far more expensive, and it simply can't be delivered in the same volume as pipeline gas. So, the only way to stop the collapse of the economy will be to start normalizing relations with Russia. The alternative is going to be mass unemployment, and mass radicalization.

Unfortunately, I do expect that things will get worse before they get better. It's going to take a critical mass of disenfranchised people to break away from the current political mainstream ans start charting a new course.