source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-10-02/global-economy-latest-bloomberg-economics-expects-a-recession
archived https://archive.ph/uVMEE
source https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-10-02/global-economy-latest-bloomberg-economics-expects-a-recession
archived https://archive.ph/uVMEE
Wow it even correlates with smaller capital crises that aren't significant enough to be recessions (1994, 2012, 2018).
looks like it's a pretty solid indicator