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It's a three-horse-race between Man City + Arsenal + Liverpool. One of them will definitely win it, they're ahead of the pack.

Man City looking to make it four title in a row for the first time ever ever ever anyone ever.

The three head-to-heads are vital (sure, your record against the other 17 matters, but the difference between winning and losing today is a 6-point delta against your rival)

All the other head-to-heads between the three potential winners have happened, this is the last one:

LIVMCI 1-1
MCILIV 1-1
LIVARS 1-1
ARSLIV 3-1
ARSMCI 1-0
MCIARS - HAPPENING NOW!!!

They were mostly draws as you see, and Arsenal wouldn't be in the running except they did so well in these head-to-heads. They're the only team who've beaten Liverpool fairly in this league (Spurs fucking cheated).

Table going in is like this:

Liverpool: played 29 games, 67 points
Arsenal: played 28 games, 64 points
Manchester City: played 28 games, 63 points
Aston Villa: played 30 games, 59 points

Note that the three are well clear of Villa. A winner today would be competitive with Liverpool; a draw today would be great news for Liverpudlians. It goes up to 38 games, so we're in the endgame.