It is 2026, and in a downbeat speech at the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin finally announces a withdrawal from Ukraine. Russian troops have done their best – or worst – but a fresh influx of well-trained Ukrainians have finally prevailed. The Donbas is now in Kyiv’s grip, Crimea’s fall only days away. What has turned the
I actually think that it's highly likely we'll see a decisive victory by Russia this year. There are already signs that Ukrainian lines are in the process of collapse as we speak. Even western media is starting to report on this, here are a couple of examples
Ukraine doesn't have defensive lines comparable to what Russia used to stop Ukrainian offensive last summer, and now that Russia broke through Avidievka, there appears to be a general collapse unfolding. This might be impossible to arrest regardless of what the west does.
The big problem Ukraine has lies in lack of trained and experienced soldiers. A lot of the ideologically committed people are now dead, and they're being replaced with fresh conscripts who are not interested in fighting, and don't have any combat skills. As the ratio of conscripts keeps growing, there's going to be an inflection point when there just won't be enough professional soldiers to keep the army together.
Another problem for the west is that Russia is massively outproducing the west industrially https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
This is primarily an artillery war, and Russia enjoys something like 10x advantage in artillery fire. This translates into very lobsided ratio in terms of losses for Ukraine. Now, we're also seeing Russian aviation doing constant bombing which Ukraine has no defence against. This situation simply can't go on for years.
Finally, I highly recommend reading this analysis from RUSI which explains that the west simply isn't capable of fighting this sort of a war currently https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine
I actually think that it's highly likely we'll see a decisive victory by Russia this year. There are already signs that Ukrainian lines are in the process of collapse as we speak. Even western media is starting to report on this, here are a couple of examples
Ukraine doesn't have defensive lines comparable to what Russia used to stop Ukrainian offensive last summer, and now that Russia broke through Avidievka, there appears to be a general collapse unfolding. This might be impossible to arrest regardless of what the west does.
The big problem Ukraine has lies in lack of trained and experienced soldiers. A lot of the ideologically committed people are now dead, and they're being replaced with fresh conscripts who are not interested in fighting, and don't have any combat skills. As the ratio of conscripts keeps growing, there's going to be an inflection point when there just won't be enough professional soldiers to keep the army together.
Another problem for the west is that Russia is massively outproducing the west industrially https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html
This is primarily an artillery war, and Russia enjoys something like 10x advantage in artillery fire. This translates into very lobsided ratio in terms of losses for Ukraine. Now, we're also seeing Russian aviation doing constant bombing which Ukraine has no defence against. This situation simply can't go on for years.
Finally, I highly recommend reading this analysis from RUSI which explains that the west simply isn't capable of fighting this sort of a war currently https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/attritional-art-war-lessons-russian-war-ukraine