A new set of Times/Siena polls, including one with The Philadelphia Inquirer, reveal an erosion of support for the president among young and nonwhite voters upset about the economy and Gaza.
So I'm going to put that on a really low probability. Even Texas, which has long had a political faction that talks big about succeeding, isn't close to majority support, let alone the necessary overwhelming support. Compare that with Ukraine's 90% approval of independence in 1991. Social, economic, and foreign relation factors just make it a tough sell here. People move around a lot, so even someone like me with a medium number of connections knows people across the US. The single market provides US businesses an enormous market of hundreds of millions of people without having to deal with trade barriers, so the business community would be dead set against it. And of course a large country has more luck throwing around its weight on the international stage than 50 small ones.
So you might have a non-negligible minority approval rate for succession when people are poking buttons in a survey app. Even less so when they have to actually make a tough decision and are shown the pros and cons.
Compare that with Ukraine's 90% approval of independence in 1991.
71,5% for staying in the USSR in the March '91 referendum (83,5% turnout) - 92% against in the December 1991 one (84% turnout)
The public opinion turned around very fast in one year. Then the Communist Party and other left wing parties were the strongest in the late 90s. It's like Lenin's quote about there being weeks where decades happen. There's no reason why it could not happen again or elsewhere.
this gives us a hint
Looks like Connecticut seceded already.
So I'm going to put that on a really low probability. Even Texas, which has long had a political faction that talks big about succeeding, isn't close to majority support, let alone the necessary overwhelming support. Compare that with Ukraine's 90% approval of independence in 1991. Social, economic, and foreign relation factors just make it a tough sell here. People move around a lot, so even someone like me with a medium number of connections knows people across the US. The single market provides US businesses an enormous market of hundreds of millions of people without having to deal with trade barriers, so the business community would be dead set against it. And of course a large country has more luck throwing around its weight on the international stage than 50 small ones.
So you might have a non-negligible minority approval rate for succession when people are poking buttons in a survey app. Even less so when they have to actually make a tough decision and are shown the pros and cons.
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71,5% for staying in the USSR in the March '91 referendum (83,5% turnout) - 92% against in the December 1991 one (84% turnout)
The public opinion turned around very fast in one year. Then the Communist Party and other left wing parties were the strongest in the late 90s. It's like Lenin's quote about there being weeks where decades happen. There's no reason why it could not happen again or elsewhere.