Anywhere between 5-30 years. Ukraine is losing the war, more countries are falling into the Russia-China/Brics camp, especially in the global south, and America is slowly decaying as a country. And once America is decayed enough it’ll be lost as the main rock of western imperialism, and the west will lose most of its bite.
I think American power has already decayed to the point where western imperialism cannot be sustained anymore. The only reason the imperial system continues anyway is sheer inertia. In all of the crises that we see today, the imperial system is rapidly undone while America and Europe are unable to respond adequately. The base has already shifted, now it is time for the superstructure to correct itself.
I disagree a little with the 5 years part as I can see a small chance of "a collapse" happening within that time, but as for the 30 years part it seems possible too.
As they have to steal ever more from their own populations and can steal less from the Global South they will become weaker and fractured, and if, for example, this happens in some parts before others it can lead to fascism in some countries in Europe which might see their neighbors in better shape as enemies, potentially leading to western infighting and an acceleration of their own collapse.
Hopefully such a scenario the conflicts stay internal instead of going global and they only weaken themselves while the rest of the world prosper. And in such a scenario we could even see Global Sout countries with enough power to massively influence western countries perhaps even leading to imperialism against them as the Global South is unlikely to go communist so fast.
Anywhere between 5-30 years. Ukraine is losing the war, more countries are falling into the Russia-China/Brics camp, especially in the global south, and America is slowly decaying as a country. And once America is decayed enough it’ll be lost as the main rock of western imperialism, and the west will lose most of its bite.
I think American power has already decayed to the point where western imperialism cannot be sustained anymore. The only reason the imperial system continues anyway is sheer inertia. In all of the crises that we see today, the imperial system is rapidly undone while America and Europe are unable to respond adequately. The base has already shifted, now it is time for the superstructure to correct itself.
I disagree a little with the 5 years part as I can see a small chance of "a collapse" happening within that time, but as for the 30 years part it seems possible too.
As they have to steal ever more from their own populations and can steal less from the Global South they will become weaker and fractured, and if, for example, this happens in some parts before others it can lead to fascism in some countries in Europe which might see their neighbors in better shape as enemies, potentially leading to western infighting and an acceleration of their own collapse.
Hopefully such a scenario the conflicts stay internal instead of going global and they only weaken themselves while the rest of the world prosper. And in such a scenario we could even see Global Sout countries with enough power to massively influence western countries perhaps even leading to imperialism against them as the Global South is unlikely to go communist so fast.
Other scenarios might be more plausible though...