The only reason why Chinese companies are able to compete in that market is because they receive a shit ton of state incentives

New architectures becoming commonplace seems impossible in the beginning but past a certain point of investment they achieve a critical mass and begin thriving. Personal computers moving to ARM would have seemed impossible to me ten years ago but it is a reality now.

Chinese software ecosystem being a little bit detached from the Western ecosystem would also make its emergence a lot easier.

Obviously it all hinges on whether RISCV is soemthing that is considered worth seriously investing in.