They've just lost 2-1 to Panamá (partly because the president of Liberia's son stupidly got himself sent off after 18 minutes).
That leaves Panamá and the USA both with 3 points after 2 games – BUT Panamá have the easy opponent left (Bolivia) and USA have the hard one (Uruguay).
So if Uruguay beat USA (probable) and Panamá draw with or beat Bolivia (very probable), the USA are out.
A "little" stronger? They have way more talent than the us. I think they'll easily win even if they don't have to
USA will be trying harder given the league table (as you said).
Panamá are two behind on goal difference, so if they thump Bolivia (who will be demoralised) say 3-0, they could overtake the USA on goal difference. USA thumping Uruguay I rate at 0% possibility, so Panamá need to put as many goals past Bolivia as possible to be covered if the USA get three points.