So, I've been thinking about our dairy industry, and I reckon it's facing existential threats on a number of fronts. We know the environmental issues – water pollution, habitat loss, deforestation, methane and CO2 emissions. Animal welfare is also an issue, for example the ethical treatment of male calves.
And then there's tech. Lab-grown milk protein is a thing now, and plant-based dairy is seeing big gains. Fonterra's even investing into lab-grown milk proteins. See https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news/130551099/labmade-milk-getting-the-creaminess-without-the-climate-pollution for other companies in NZ making lab-grown milk. When China realises mass production of casein in labs, demand for our milk powder will... evaporate. And that milk powder, is, what, 95% of the demand?
I don't see how we can just 'adapt' dairy farming. These aren't small problems, they're insurmountable challenges. And those pressures are only going to increase.
If these threats are unlikely to be mitigated, the focus must shift towards planning how to downscale dairy farming in a responsible way. Industries have come and gone before ( whaling, anyone? ). Anyone got some thoughts on this? What will NZ look like in 20 years?
Considering how massive a trading partner China is, and how big a slice the dairy industry is of our economic pie, I think it will be pretty devastating.
It will take a while to switch so it won't be sudden, but definitely a slow steady decline in GDP.