Running low on freelancing projects so I figured I'd waste my time with a little speculation. The current political zeitgeist seems to be that it's Kamala's race to lose by virtue of the abortion issue and not being Biden or Trump. Polling is only just now starting to trickle in, but assuming she's got the edge right now, how does it go wrong? Here are some scenarios:

  1. She picks Josh Shapiro as her VP and loses Michigan. Shapiro might help her lock in Pennsylvania, but he also "stands out among the current field of potential running mates as being egregiously bad on Palestine," as David Klion writes for The New Republic. That might be enough to lose the support of Michigan's significant Arab-American population and hand it to Trump, which is a big deal as many of the Democratic roads to electoral victory run through Michigan.
  2. Republican lawsuits gum up the ballot. While legal experts have generally dismissed the possibility that efforts to challenge Brandon's dropout and swap to Kamala, this wouldn't be the first time that such experts have been caught with their pants down on significant legal rulings. Even if these lawsuits don't go anywhere, they could depress turnout by causing confusion and enabling the spread of misinformation in swing states.
  3. Trump forces J.D. Vance off the ticket and gets a VP with more rizz. Ironically, this would open the GOP up to the type of litigation from point 2, but with actual legal credence since the nomination process is complete. Might still be worth it since the dude seems to be a charisma vacuum.
  4. Kamala calls someone a honkey or cracker on a hot mic and white moderates freak out. This is my just for fun, pretty much. But like, what if?

Thoughts??

  • PKMKII [none/use name]
    ·
    5 months ago

    A few things that stick out to me as possibilities:

    • Her awkward personality is a slow burn grate on the populace. Probably no single moment here, just a built up of events and speeches that communicate no charisma.
    • It’s been reported that both her primary campaign in 2020 and her VP outfit have been marred by mismanagement, in-fighting, unclear chains of command. Likely her presidential campaign is more of the same. Besides that generally being a hindrance, if disgruntled staff start talking to the press that’s going to create the image of a sinking ship which will put off voters.
    • The genocide in Gaza starts getting much, much uglier. I don’t think the Palestinian issue is front and center for most voters, but if the atrocities get more blatant and Harris keeps defending Israel, it could sour enough voters to swing some states.
    • More “Pell-grant recipients” policy platforms. This would likely tie in with the first issue; voters don’t like these overly wrought, means-tested programs and if everything out of her is like that, it’s going to feed the sense of her being unlikable. Voters read triangulation as shifty.
    • COVID makes a roaring comeback. Cases/hospitalizations/deaths spiking close to the election would undermine the spin that Democrats “beat” COVID, would drive a lot of liberal voters to stay home (but not conservatives) and the associated economic hit would be placed on Harris’ neck.
    • Speaking of which: it’s the economy, stupid. People are already feeling like the economy is going the wrong direction with inflation of essentials, home and tuition prices through the roof, and interest rates up. Things get any worse, that will disillusion voters and as dumb as it is, there’s a not-insignificant chunk of the electorate in play that see Republicans as better on the economy.
    • RION [she/her]
      ·
      5 months ago

      I would expect her to inherit the Biden campaign more or less entirely, which might avoid her previous issues w/ management. otherwise these are good possiblities

    • wtypstanaccount04 [he/him]
      ·
      5 months ago

      The genocide in Gaza starts getting much, much uglier.

      How could it possibly get any worse besides death camps or nukes?