There is growing alarm about the pace and prospects of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, with few signs of progress in recent weeks and Russian lines holding strong. Those concerns picked up steam …
I've been under the impression Ukraine was an explicit trap for Russia, to draw them into a quagmire war they couldn't really avoid, and that the West intends to draw it out for as long as possible to tie up Russian resources and possibly even break them through attrition.
Ukraine's current regime has become aggressive towards its Western paymasters, hyped up on their own fascist rhetoric if their politicians are anything to go by, and they're losing bad, proving they're an unreliable and dangerous ally. However, I don't think they'll be thrown under the bus quite yet. I suspect, if NATO's puppet regime can't win, they'll just turn the region into a terrorist state. Whatever government Russia sets up there will need constant Russian military support, and this will be used as propaganda of how Russia "conquered" Ukraine. Fascist resistance, heavily armed, will be trained, supplied, and directed by NATO for years to come, shown as "freedom fighters", while every action Russia takes to keep its borders secure - or even to help Ukraine against fascist terrorism - will be skewed and displayed as tyranny.
In other words, the US will do what it does in every country it fails to install its puppets. At least, that's my prediction. But who can say?
Breaking Russia economically and causing a regime change was the hare brained scheme from the west. However, that whole plan relied on being able to sanction Russia effectively. The reality is that Russia is just too big and too integrated into the global economy for that to happen. So, when the west started trying to freeze Russia out of the global financial system they found out that India and China weren't on board, at which point the whole scheme fell apart.
What's worse, we're now seeing that it's actually the west that's having growing economic troubles while Russian economy is growing and domestic industry is developing. The relative cost of keeping this war going is far more significant for the west than for Russia. Europe in particular is screwed because they got cut off from cheap energy they were getting. Meanwhile, Russia has no problem selling energy to other countries. So, in practice it's Russia breaking NATO through attrition as opposed to the other way around.
The west trying to go the terrorist route is a possible scenario, and it has been openly discussed. However, that carries dangers of its own as well. What's likely to happen is that Russia will annex all the regions that are heavily populated by the Russian speaking population. People there just want the war to end, and they will integrate into Russia. Then there's going to be a rump state of western Ukraine left that's full of nationalists. It's not going to be able to function on its own, and it will become west's problem because if it fails then there will be a flood of refugees coming to Europe. This is the nightmare scenario for the west where they either have to keep pumping billions of dollars to prop up whatever's left of Ukraine or deal with a huge flood of refugees that Europe's not able to absorb.
And of course, the fascists will end up feeling betrayed by the west at this point and they will realize they've been cynically used. I expect there will be at least as much terrorism happening in Europe as in Russian controlled territory as a result. CBS put out a report a while back stating that only 30% of the weapons made it to the battlefront. The rest end up on the black market, and it's almost certain that Ukrainian fascists have been linking up with far right cells across Europe and feeding these weapons to them.
So, I agree with you that this is the likely US plan, but I predict that it's going to backfire the same way the proxy war did. US completely misread the situation and they've made huge blunders over the past two years that are now culminating in a debacle for them.
I'm sure it will backfire for the liberal element in the West, but this is exactly what the fascists could have hoped for. And unless those would-be terrorists are dealt with in the aftermath of the war, I foresee a fascist shitstorm in a region that's primed for fascist takeover.
I can't shake the feeling that more than a few people planned for a Russian victory from the beginning, martyring Ukraine for a fascist revival in Europe. Not saying people didn't genuinely think Ukraine could win, just that there were cleverer puppeteers who sacrificed the country for a wider fascist movement.
I can’t shake the feeling that more than a few people planned for a Russian victory from the beginning, martyring Ukraine for a fascist revival in Europe.
It's possible, but I genuinely think most of the ruling class in the west buys their own bs, particularly in the USA. Sometimes the military brass is more realistic because they know their resources.
I think this is why we are seeing other countries starting to make moves to break from the US' grip. I expect more situations like in Niger over the next few years.
True, but I'm thinking about the grassroots fascist orgs that coordinate online, that got involved in this whole project. I've talked to fascists before, and there is a breed of them that really would burn a whole country down to incite fascist sympathy across Europe. If the US gave them power, knowingly or unknowingly, in Ukraine, then I think there's more at work than just the ghouls in leadership.
fascists will end up feeling betrayed by the west at this point and they will realize they’ve been cynically used
Idk, the original banderites that fled to Canada seemed pretty supportive of the regimes that used them. And their descendants even more so - just look at Christie Freeland
The thing is the russian MOD and putin have plainly, and explicitly said that they would not occupy ukraine and set up a government, and that they would not pay for any of the damages in the war. The russians have only held the russian speaking areas in ukraine, and there's a good reason for this. The imperial core wanted to russia to fight a occupation style war, similar to how the soviets fought in afghanistan. But the SMO has been conducted completely differently, the russians fight a defensive war, and force the ukrainians to be on the advance. Ukraine cannot win the war in a situation like this.
If that doesn't change, then it's less resources and risk holding the Russian-speaking areas, but the West will try and stir the pot in the area. I don't think we'll see them simply abandon fascist assets just to use them as scapegoats. I think they'll keep anti-Russian terrorism going in the region as long as it takes to force Russia to get involved again.
I've been under the impression Ukraine was an explicit trap for Russia, to draw them into a quagmire war they couldn't really avoid, and that the West intends to draw it out for as long as possible to tie up Russian resources and possibly even break them through attrition.
Ukraine's current regime has become aggressive towards its Western paymasters, hyped up on their own fascist rhetoric if their politicians are anything to go by, and they're losing bad, proving they're an unreliable and dangerous ally. However, I don't think they'll be thrown under the bus quite yet. I suspect, if NATO's puppet regime can't win, they'll just turn the region into a terrorist state. Whatever government Russia sets up there will need constant Russian military support, and this will be used as propaganda of how Russia "conquered" Ukraine. Fascist resistance, heavily armed, will be trained, supplied, and directed by NATO for years to come, shown as "freedom fighters", while every action Russia takes to keep its borders secure - or even to help Ukraine against fascist terrorism - will be skewed and displayed as tyranny.
In other words, the US will do what it does in every country it fails to install its puppets. At least, that's my prediction. But who can say?
Breaking Russia economically and causing a regime change was the hare brained scheme from the west. However, that whole plan relied on being able to sanction Russia effectively. The reality is that Russia is just too big and too integrated into the global economy for that to happen. So, when the west started trying to freeze Russia out of the global financial system they found out that India and China weren't on board, at which point the whole scheme fell apart.
What's worse, we're now seeing that it's actually the west that's having growing economic troubles while Russian economy is growing and domestic industry is developing. The relative cost of keeping this war going is far more significant for the west than for Russia. Europe in particular is screwed because they got cut off from cheap energy they were getting. Meanwhile, Russia has no problem selling energy to other countries. So, in practice it's Russia breaking NATO through attrition as opposed to the other way around.
The west trying to go the terrorist route is a possible scenario, and it has been openly discussed. However, that carries dangers of its own as well. What's likely to happen is that Russia will annex all the regions that are heavily populated by the Russian speaking population. People there just want the war to end, and they will integrate into Russia. Then there's going to be a rump state of western Ukraine left that's full of nationalists. It's not going to be able to function on its own, and it will become west's problem because if it fails then there will be a flood of refugees coming to Europe. This is the nightmare scenario for the west where they either have to keep pumping billions of dollars to prop up whatever's left of Ukraine or deal with a huge flood of refugees that Europe's not able to absorb.
And of course, the fascists will end up feeling betrayed by the west at this point and they will realize they've been cynically used. I expect there will be at least as much terrorism happening in Europe as in Russian controlled territory as a result. CBS put out a report a while back stating that only 30% of the weapons made it to the battlefront. The rest end up on the black market, and it's almost certain that Ukrainian fascists have been linking up with far right cells across Europe and feeding these weapons to them.
So, I agree with you that this is the likely US plan, but I predict that it's going to backfire the same way the proxy war did. US completely misread the situation and they've made huge blunders over the past two years that are now culminating in a debacle for them.
I'm sure it will backfire for the liberal element in the West, but this is exactly what the fascists could have hoped for. And unless those would-be terrorists are dealt with in the aftermath of the war, I foresee a fascist shitstorm in a region that's primed for fascist takeover.
I can't shake the feeling that more than a few people planned for a Russian victory from the beginning, martyring Ukraine for a fascist revival in Europe. Not saying people didn't genuinely think Ukraine could win, just that there were cleverer puppeteers who sacrificed the country for a wider fascist movement.
That's an entirely plausible scenario given that western left shat the bed as usual.
Yeah, they're good at that.
It's possible, but I genuinely think most of the ruling class in the west buys their own bs, particularly in the USA. Sometimes the military brass is more realistic because they know their resources.
I think this is why we are seeing other countries starting to make moves to break from the US' grip. I expect more situations like in Niger over the next few years.
Hopefully no nukes get dropped.
True, but I'm thinking about the grassroots fascist orgs that coordinate online, that got involved in this whole project. I've talked to fascists before, and there is a breed of them that really would burn a whole country down to incite fascist sympathy across Europe. If the US gave them power, knowingly or unknowingly, in Ukraine, then I think there's more at work than just the ghouls in leadership.
Definitely true. These groups can easily manipulate rubes from the West.
Idk, the original banderites that fled to Canada seemed pretty supportive of the regimes that used them. And their descendants even more so - just look at Christie Freeland
Sure, ones that flee to the west and get comfortable are going to be like that, but vast majority of them are gonna be stuck in a ruined country.
The thing is the russian MOD and putin have plainly, and explicitly said that they would not occupy ukraine and set up a government, and that they would not pay for any of the damages in the war. The russians have only held the russian speaking areas in ukraine, and there's a good reason for this. The imperial core wanted to russia to fight a occupation style war, similar to how the soviets fought in afghanistan. But the SMO has been conducted completely differently, the russians fight a defensive war, and force the ukrainians to be on the advance. Ukraine cannot win the war in a situation like this.
If that doesn't change, then it's less resources and risk holding the Russian-speaking areas, but the West will try and stir the pot in the area. I don't think we'll see them simply abandon fascist assets just to use them as scapegoats. I think they'll keep anti-Russian terrorism going in the region as long as it takes to force Russia to get involved again.
This is what happened in Libya. NATO just destroyed the state and handed out weapons, resulting in a huge uptick in terrorism in the region.
It seems to be their preferred strategy.