I read somewhere also that the Nigerian senate even refused to support military intervention. I don’t understand how this organization is able to command that amassing of so many troops seemingly over the heads of officials in the countries.
Do we think Niger will be able to hold out against the western terrorists? Honestly I'm worried their new governor won't last long and won't get much outside support. I feel the only major power that really has the resources to help would be China maybe and they have a pretty strong "no intervention" policy from what I understand. On the other hand they are pretty invested into building up many African nations so idk, maybe?
I feel like the West’s involvement and munitions depletion in regards to Ukraine will help a lot here. Not to say the West, France especially, won’t fuck with them, but it might give them some breathing room to stabilize. I hope.
France specifically send so much weapons to Ukraine they stripped down some of their regular units.
No idea, it's specifically unit trained for the colonial crackdowns. I think Mali and Burkina Faso statements basically means that the small scale intervention is hardly possible, so it will be either open war, and for that France would need USA and ECOWAS, or the clandestine spec ops countercoup/civil war attempt.
Seems to me the colonial crackdown force is quite well suited for the latter, no?
Sure, but i don't know much about the Foreign Legion, so i'm not sure they can operate like this.
It depends on how much Nigeria is committed to the invasion since they are a strong regional power. If they manage to drum up popular support and launch a committed attack, Niger's prospects don't look good. But that's a big if.
looking at the situation, it really feels like rather than trying to find who's stronger, one should really be looking for who's weaker. Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea combined probably can't resist the rest of ECOWAS or even Nigeria alone given that they're already fighting off insurgents and militias and shit. but Nigeria's president is also very unpopular and a war might terminally destabilize his position, and the amount of troops proposed (25,000) doesn't seem enough to hold all of Niger especially if it descends into guerrilla warfare.
From the (translated) article:
"This position is dissociated from ECOWAS which, even if it continues to favor the « dialogue », ordered ’ « immediate activation of [ sa ] standby force », and it considerably weakens the West African organization"
I think this is how the word "dissociated" bubbled up to the headline, and could be perceived as a misleading translation, as it implies there was some formal rebuke of ECOWAS by the larger AU when there was not.
Still, this is real news and very positive for those who oppose intervention.
I saw this write up in English as well after posting https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/08/17/african-union-will-not-back-ecowas-intervention-in-niger/
