SeventyTwoTrillion [he/him]
"Crises teasingly hold out the possibility of dramatic reversals only to be followed by surreal continuity as the old order cadaverously fights back."
- 202 Posts
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·8 days agoI think 72 trillion has been purposely avoiding hexbear because one or more admins have gone fucking insane and are banning tons of long time users for made up issues.
To whoever posted this, I haven't been purposefully avoiding Hexbear lately because of the admins, I've been purposefully avoiding Hexbear lately because the comments have generally been unnecessarily pessimistic and unproductive. I'm not gonna spend much times in places where the vibe is merely documenting the thousand myriad ways in which the world is screwed and it's all hopeless; I prefer spending time analyzing those thousand myriad ways and how they could be overcome and what the likely course of action will be based on historical comparisons. Informed despair is still just despair.
With the fall of Syria, Nasrallah's assassination, and the death of Raisi, I've figured out how the Resistance media operates.
- If imperialist media is reporting something and there is no reporting on it at all by Resistance media, it is probably false.
- If imperialist media is reporting something and Resistance media is explicitly denying it, it is very possibly true.
- If imperialist media is reporting something and Resistance media is explicitly denying it and there's rumors from channels in the know that it's true, then it's almost certainly true and they are figuring out the best moment to report it.
To sum it up: If it's all clear, there's nothing to fear; if they deny, get ready to cry.
you can't even have damascus anymore. because of woke
Well, if you can't set up your government-in-exile in Florida then Moscow isn't too bad. Give climate change a couple decades and they might have similar temperatures and climates
Hezbollah literally just defeated the Israeli army, what on god green's earth are you talking about
if Netanyahu was currently getting a tan in Beirut I could understand this position, but they couldn't even take Khiam. The Resistance is not only not defeated, it's actually still stronger than Israel and has more achievements under its belt. It's taken over a year for Israel to achieve two meaningful goals (collapse of Syria, detach Gaza and Lebanon fronts) while the Resistance has been knocking out Israeli air defense and military sites and tanks and vehicles and causing untold economic and social damage to Israel since October 7th, and now suddenly it all means nothing? All those tanks magically repaired, all that tourism money replenished, all the Zionist soldiers risen from the grave, all those air defense missiles un-fired?
We aren't at the end of the war. We're not even at the beginning of the end. We're at the end of the beginning, and we have years to go yet. Strap in.
I don't think so? I think the situation is still relatively okay and I'm optimistic about the future of the Resistance. The massive damage done to Israel isn't suddenly reversed because a bad thing, even a very bad thing, happens. That's simply not how material conditions develop. It's a race to the bottom; as Israel internally decays, it must take increasingly brazen and risky actions to survive. The South Africa model is being followed to its inevitable conclusion. Destabilize surrounding countries in the hopes that everybody else will fall before you do. It won't work, but ideologically, there's no other way for Israel to go.
What happens next will be defined by Iran and Russia's response. The ball is in their court. If there has been no strategic developments or recalculations within the next few months or so then we can infer a lot of things from that.
You can have hope, or you can say that actually, the Resistance never had a chance anyway and swear that you'll never predict any good event ever happening ever again: the internal emotional state of internet commenters doesn't matter to anybody actually fighting against Israel. You're obviously allowed to have strong emotions about it, it would be kinda weird if you didn't, but your opinion of events cannot influence them. My goal here remains the same; to observe and understand how anti-imperialists act, and respond to actions, by a decaying neoliberal hegemon. I'll be here as long as there are anti-imperialists in this world, which means I'll be here indefinitely, because there will always be those who oppose the ruling order. Regardless of what happens in the Middle East, as communists, we (including myself) should aim to do at least a little better than defeatism. It's why I admire @xiaohongshu@hexbear.net; they might be rather pessimistic on the whole, but they don't just show up and bleat about how it's all hopeless and there's no way for China or Iran or Russia to win, they are reading and studying to understand the geopolitical situation and what avenues exist for imperialism to be defeated if China is willing to do X, Y, or Z. To take a section from this essay I recently summarized and posted:
The Demiurge Does Not Exist; or, the Problem With Pessimism:
This is a frequent problem in political media, or media in general: simply depicting a problem is not enough. Portraying or pointing to the inequalities and abuses of capitalism has to come with the practical solutions to these problems, otherwise it is an exercise in despair – an informed despair, yet despair nonetheless.
This is critique as exposure, shining a light on the problems as opposed to demonstrating the fallibility of these problems. Something missing from documentaries and books [like war exposes] is the premise that despite the overwhelming power of the U.S Empire, it is inevitable that it will fall. The brilliance of a work like Marx’s Capital is that it demonstrates the sheer power of capitalism, its ability to extract immense quantities of wealth and social control, while simultaneously showing the power of labour, the protagonist who will break its chains and bring in the next necessary stage in human development.
...
The power of capitalism, the appearance of an all-powerful Demiurge, is undone when we are able to recognise the world as changing over time; this is the Hegelian and Marxist notion of “History”, a dynamic process based on interconnected and material struggles, rather than “history”, a collection of isolated events with no underlying logic.
Without an understanding of how quantitative changes turn into qualitative changes, it is easy to see small wins as isolated, without their transformative potential in aggregate. A lack of process thinking creates “Messianism”, the belief that the world should be changed in one fell swoop; this binary logic is endemic to Western thought and a major factor in the pessimism seen among the Left. A combination of intense pessimism towards the construction of socialism in the short-term, and an intense utopian optimism that the revolution should arrive “all-at-once”, is a fundamental issue that prevents a grounded understanding.
Sorry to reveal my inner LOTR nerd, but quite possibly my single favourite quote in all of media is Aragorn's words after losing Gandalf in Moria:
“‘We must do without hope,’ he said. ‘At least we may yet be avenged. Let us gird ourselves and weep no more! Come! We have a long road, and much to do.'”
I'm now imagining Assad with a long white beard and wizard hat, which isn't a happy thought. Nasrallah fits that look better.
The Saudis are probably feeling real stupid about letting Syria back into the Arab League in 2023. MBS should have just held out a little longer and Syria would have indeed collapsed.
Insert here that meme with the two guys digging for diamonds.
If Assad isn't an idiot, he'll surrender within the next 12 hours and go live in semi-comfortable exile in some gulf monarchy before getting assassinated in a couple years. So hopefully the army will just walk.
This is essentially my position, yeah. Hopefully it also delivers a firm message to Pezeshkian to redouble support and to not hesitate as much any more, nor sign any backroom deals. Of all the organizations for the Resistance to lose, Syria is probably the least impactful. It did very little over the last year directly against Israel and its most useful factor is who it borders; smuggling is universal and unstoppable, the strongest governments in history never managed to stamp it out.
Whenever there's a complex/bad situation developing, there's always a feeling of doom and catastrophism here, and it produces a feedback loop where it makes people with more balanced/positive opinions shy away, thereby further increasing the concentration of catastrophism. I've tried resisting it, I've tried fighting it, and now I'm just ignoring it until the situation is clarified.
Don't worry about what's going on in Syria - the Resistance is still in its ascendancy over Israel. Israel has done even worse against Hezbollah than expected by even the pessimists, Israel does not have the military or economic capability to create Greater Israel (it would first have to, y'know, re-expand into its own borders and re-settle the northern settlers), its land army is large but incompetent, its air forces are becoming increasingly unimportant as they are unable to create military victories.
Raw comparisons of casualty numbers are misleading to the point of doing hasbara; look at literally any successful anti-colonial war, the natives always took massive losses compared to the settler forces and yet still won. North Vietnam had 3-4x the military losses (let alone civilian) of the imperialist side, and yet they won. 4-5x times as many Algerian soldiers died as French soldiers, and guess who had control of the country at the end? Guess who took heavier losses in WW2 between Nazi Germany and the USSR. Guess who won. It's simply not a statistic you can take out of context to judge the progress of any war, but especially anti-imperialist and/or guerrilla wars. The full picture demonstrates that both Israel and Hezbollah are battered and bruised, but Hezbollah is the clear victor when judged from any historical standpoint; it's actually pretty incredible the degree to which they won, considering that wars of this type often involve heavy land losses before the settler forces are attrited and repelled, and often last years, while (if the ceasefire holds, which it may or may not) this one was really over in a couple months.
We need that Inverse Jim Cramer Index but for Hexbear. Any time the predominant narrative is X, guess the opposite of X
The Cradle: How Lebanon's resistance defied Israeli dominance, again
spoiler
In his book How the Weak Win Wars: A Theory of Asymmetric Conflict, Ivan Arreguín-Toft presents a compelling perspective on how conflicts unfold when there is a significant power imbalance. Toft argues that in asymmetric warfare, the more powerful side often ends up being defeated, not because they are outright beaten, but because they fail to achieve a decisive victory. Conversely, weaker parties win by enduring, persevering, refusing defeat, and maintaining sustained resistance. This explains how resistance movements interpret their confrontations with powerful adversaries – as seen in the Israeli war on Lebanon, where the outcome of a ceasefire, without realizing the stated objectives, left many in Israel disillusioned despite military superiority.
The Lebanese front: A force that transformed the conflict
Militarily, Hezbollah's involvement forced Israel to split its focus between Gaza and the northern border of occupied Palestine. This divide stretched Israeli forces thin, hindering their progress and complicating their strategy. Hezbollah's actions indicated that, for over a year, Israel faced a two-front battle – diverting troops and resources from Gaza to secure its northern regions. As acknowledged by The Times of Israel in August, Israel's shortage of manpower was evident, “The IDF is suffering manpower shortages caused by the hostilities on the northern border and the ongoing war in Gaza.”
This two-front struggle also stalled several planned Israeli ground operations in Gaza. The heightened tension on the northern border gave Palestinian resistance movements the time they needed to regroup and disrupt Israel's military timetable. An example of this was Israel's delay of a major ground offensive in Gaza until the US reinforced their air defenses in the area – a move attributed to fears of escalation from Lebanon.
Economic and psychological impact on Israel
The war on the Lebanese front led to severe economic losses for Israel. Israeli newspaper Walla reported in August that Hezbollah's attacks set off fires that destroyed approximately 180 dunams (around 44.5 acres) of land, including 7,500 dunams (around 1,853 acres) in the Israeli-occupied Syrian Golan Heights and 4,600 dunams (around 1,137 acres) in the Upper Galilee. Extensive devastation was seen in agricultural fields and forests, contributing to environmental and economic losses. Agriculture, a key sector in Israel's economy, was heavily affected; over 1,000 dunams (around 247 acres) of cultivated land were damaged, including avocado, pear, apple, olive, and grape plantations. The departure of Thai and Palestinian workers due to the lack of safety and security in the area further exacerbated irrigation and pest control issues, as well as overall agricultural productivity.
Israel suffered from another huge blow – mass emigration – that came as a result of the Lebanese resistance's attacks on the north. Around 62,480 settlers in Israel's north fled or were evacuated – with many choosing not to return, citing safety concerns. Moreover, as of August 2024, 4,378 claims for property damage had been filed in the north, and losses in tourism reached NIS 1.15 billion (around $320,998,164) in direct revenues, with indirect losses at over NIS 2.64 billion (around $736,900,135). Agricultural and poultry production, which represents 70 percent of Israel's chicken supply, was significantly jeopardized, raising concerns over local food security.
The resistance heavily engaged in psychological warfare against the occupation state, planting an undeniable sense of insecurity and fear among the settlers and disrupting daily life across the north. Psychological warfare waged by Hezbollah also sought to influence the awareness of Israeli leaders and civilians about the risks of confronting the Axis of Resistance forces beyond Palestine.
Hezbollah employed hybrid warfare, integrating military and non-military strategies, including cognitive warfare, to shape Israeli perceptions. This approach involves introducing and promoting narratives about the Israeli occupation that align with the resistance movement's objectives while strengthening its social media presence to amplify these views. Hezbollah also highlighted internal issues within Israel through multilingual broadcasts, videos, and media campaigns that underscore Israel's vulnerabilities. Additionally, it periodically showcases its military advancements and directly addresses the Israeli public to foster uncertainty about their security and the country's future. These diverse tactics aim to influence the morale and perceptions of the Israeli population.
From resistance to repelling aggression
Despite these notable achievements, the war between Israel and Lebanon did not lead to the end of the war on Gaza. However, the occupation army was made to pay a hefty price, strategically undermining its broader objectives. As John Mearsheimer argues in The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, objectives in warfare are dynamic, often shifting when external pressures collide with internal challenges. Israel’s campaign, which began offensively, became increasingly defensive as the focus diverted from achieving outright victory to ensuring survival.
The Lebanese front’s objective developed, too – from supporting Gaza to directly countering Israeli aggression against Lebanon. Israel initially sought to eliminate Hezbollah and establish a buffer zone along the Lebanese border, aiming to reassure northern settlers of their safety. However, these goals remained out of reach; rather than demonstrating overwhelming dominance, Israel found itself embroiled in a familiar quagmire.
Hezbollah performed an average of 23 military operations per day on Israel since the start of the war, targeting military outposts, barracks, and bases – even reaching deep into occupied Palestinian territories. This displays the resistance movement's enhanced capabilities. Moreover, Israel's ground invasion of south Lebanon, which was launched in early October, caused a lot of setbacks for the occupation forces: over 130 Israeli soldiers were killed, and 59 Merkava tanks, alongside various other military equipment, were destroyed. Despite multiple aggressive attempts to enter, Israeli forces failed to occupy any key towns in south Lebanon or to create a secure buffer zone. Hezbollah’s resilience turned what Israel had hoped would be a swift campaign into a costly ordeal, mirroring Israel’s defeat in the 2006 war.
The cost of war and the measure of victory
Modern warfare shows us that victory is not solely about inflicting the greatest losses or causing the most destruction; it is about achieving strategic goals. In conflicts like the Vietnam War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the weaker side's ability to endure ultimately led to victory despite overwhelming casualties and devastation. The Lebanese resistance movement demonstrated the same resilience during the July 2006 war and again now – managing to withstand Israeli attacks and preventing the occupation from meeting its strategic goals.
Wars of national liberation always come at a high cost, especially for civilians. However, this is often a prerequisite for success against a militarily superior adversary. Hezbollah’s ability to withstand Israeli pressure and sustain its operations solidified its position as a formidable opponent – proving once again that true victory lies in thwarting the enemy's stated objectives, and not in mere survival.
I honestly don't really give a shit about Assad and I don't think anybody here is getting ready to mourn him if he gets got, the actual issue is the potential isolation of Lebanon from Iran.
I'm less anxious than others here though; drone warfare is the future and they're much easier to produce and transport than missiles, so even in a dysfunctional and nominally isolated country, Hezbollah could continue to function and oppose Israel competently. I mean, fucking Hamas somehow manages to produce weaponry capable of destroying/substantially damaging the best tanks Israel can produce, and they're in a concentration camp that's regularly bombed. I'm sure Hezbollah can manage a similar feat in a much bigger country and with much longer borders.
I just meant in the sense that both Syria and Burkina Faso are assaulted by rebel groups and the government doesn't control the whole territory. I trust Traore more than I do Assad, though.
Whereas Maduro does actually have control over all of Venezuela and it's not a flimsy control either, there is genuine popular support. It could obviously be better given Venezuela's economic problems causing internal strife, but I don't think it's particularly at risk of being successfully couped. And if it is, there would probably be a rapid reversal. The biggest danger is an outright military attack by the US or other countries in the region deciding to isolate them economically.
I don't think Syria and Venezuela are in the same conversation, you're comparing apples and ICBMs
Syria and Burkina Faso, on the other hand...
my sense of Assad is that:
- he's kind of a moron, especially if he's refusing Iranian military aid
- nonetheless, he has some supernaturally good survival skills
- the accusations that the West have levied at him are in excess of his actual crimes
- he's still done some legitimately bad things
- he represents merely one faction in a sea of battling factions, and not the dominant one (certainly not anymore given what's happening)
Next news thread here:
https://hexbear.net/post/4151797