I have to agree that this won't kill NATO. It will however be extremely important for eventually leading to its decline and death but that's something easily 10-25 years and several more crises and problems away.

It would somewhat weaken US control on Europe if only because many Europeans would see the sacrifices they made, the hollowed out industry for nothing but a loss in the end anyways and it would influence their perceptions. Their bourgeoisie would be more amenable to wanting to explore other options and arrangements.

But materially the European leadership and means of force (military, police) are under US control and under full sway and commitment to the neo-liberal project and keeping their knight-champion of capitalism the US strong as it is their only hope.

Europe is not free. It has interests which compel it to go along with the US and NATO but even if those interests vanish it could not freely choose. Remember the Snowden revelations. tapping Angela Merkel's phone by the NSA, double-agents in German intelligence. The US and Britain have thoroughly infiltrated and subverted the intelligence, military, political parties and establishments, and governments of EU nations. They have books full of blackmail on rising politicians and maintain them when new ones appear to maintain control. They move behind the scenes to exert pressure to maneuver preferred people into the lines of succession for power. European media is fully in their thrall when they need it to be. And GLADIO never really ended, it just changed a bit. Beyond that the US literally occupies Germany with troops.

So I don't think Europe will be free until the US is already significantly weakened and in real decline. They may tug at their leash a bit, cause a little trouble but as long as the US can discipline them by blowing up gas pipelines, or stealing submarine deals from the French they're still just a dog on a leash and the US is the one holding it.

I will say the first claim is true. That is, if NATO triumphs in Ukraine and Russia were to be defeated or forced to accept a humiliating compromise then it would be strengthened. Forces for independence against it would be further constrained and they would march in ever tighter lock step with the US on foreign policy with regards to China/Russia/BRICS for the forseeable future, perhaps not a century but a quarter century or at least another decade seems likely.