Why she deserved to lose: Gaza genocide
Why she actually lost: voters inappropriately blaming democrats for the high inflation in 2021-2023
- (it wasn't really Biden's fault or the democrats' fault, it was a global issue and pretty much every country has dealt with high inflation in the last few years. The US's inflation has been about average internationally, maybe even a bit lower than average.)
Why this sucks:
- since Gaza protest voters weren't actually a difference maker, there's not as much opportunity for us to agitate about it as we would've liked. Liberals will probably be dismissive of the argument that Harris lost because of her position about Gaza, and they'll be right; it just doesn't really hold up.
- the liberal smugness about ignorant voters that we're surely going to see in the next few weeks is... actually kind of correct.
Let me know if you think I'm wrong about any of this. I'd kind of like to be wrong, honestly.
I'm not sure that this is completely correct. I agree that this is a repudiation of the Biden Admin and that inflation is probably the largest factor in the unfavorables. But Harris underperformed with Dem voters. They did not turn people out who voted in 2020. I don't believe that the genocide and Biden's foreign policy mote broadly had nothing to do with that.
The electorate doesnt have a sophisticated handle on foreign policy, but they kind of care when something like war with Iran is on the table. USians may not vote based on foreign policy, but they also have not voted for anything that seems like a return to Bush area style wars for 20 years. They rejected it in 08, and they rejected it 2016 with Clinton being tied to that
I'd be really, really interested to see relationships between tiktok us and voter turnout. I assume if any demographic was aware of Gaza it'd be tiktok kids, but idk.