In the sense that the economy would have to make it up elsewhere rather than a temporary decline in trade volume.
Obviously there are confounding factors (internal knock on effects would increase it, pivoting to non US sources or middlemen would decrease it) and I don't have anywhere near enough knowledge to work through that. But even if it took 3 years to fully recover and pivot, that's three years with GDP growth essentially cut by a third. In the west that same cut would tip most economies into deep recession.
permanent?
In the sense that the economy would have to make it up elsewhere rather than a temporary decline in trade volume.
Obviously there are confounding factors (internal knock on effects would increase it, pivoting to non US sources or middlemen would decrease it) and I don't have anywhere near enough knowledge to work through that. But even if it took 3 years to fully recover and pivot, that's three years with GDP growth essentially cut by a third. In the west that same cut would tip most economies into deep recession.