Currently the CPC is anticipating to move into a higher stage of socialism, or becoming a fully socialist country, by 2050. This will obviously change much of China, but how will it effect their foreign policy? China has famously had many bad takes in terms of foreign policy, but their post-Mao non-interventionism is important practically in retaining peaceful and favorable relations with global capital. They know that, even now, funding revolutionaries will only isolate them internationally.

But once China's productive forces are high enough to allow the socialist transition then they no longer have to remain non-interventionalist for practical reasons. They could still try and justify it, but at that stage it would be hard for China to reject the internationalist principles of Marxism. The USSR could afford, to an extent, to wield hard power in support of revolutions and their governments, and of course without the USSR it could be argued that most socialist states would have collapsed soon after gaining state power. The soviets could do this due to their high level of industrialization, military, and global economic power.

When China is able to realize the same stage of socialism as the USSR they will undoubtedly be the largest and strongest economy in the world. While the west will still have some influence and power with which to threaten and hurt China over supporting international socialism, they ultimately won't be in the position of power to isolate China then as they did with the USSR. So there could be even less consequences for Chinese interventionism at this stage. Do you believe, then, that China would adopt foreign policy similar to the Soviet Union? And could even create an international version of the Warsaw Pact, that is an economic and military alliance between socialist states?

From my ignorant non-Chinese POV, there appear to be neither a practical or ideological reason for a fully socialist China not to be internationalist.

  • OrnluWolfjarl@lemmygrad.ml
    ·
    1 year ago

    For this shift to happen and China not get weakened because of it, 2 conditions need to be met:

    1. the retraction of capitalist power projection around the world. Primarily, the ability of imperialist powers to impose their will around the globe through economic warfare, covert actions and military threats needs to be limited. Ideally the imperialist powers don't need to only be weaker, but they also need to be pitted against each other, so their power structures (like NATO) are ineffective enough to not be a threat. The effects of the Ukraine war and the disastrous handling of COVID by the West might have seemingly already achieved this to an extend, but there's a long way to go.
    1. strengthening the economies of any potential allies to the extend where they can create a front that is powerful enough to withstand or deter capitalist intervention, while not being dependant solely on Chinese economic, industrial and military power. Remember that one reason for the downfall of the USSR was that it diverted so much of its resources into developing its military capabilities, since nobody else in the Soviet bloc or its allies could contribute significantly against the Cold War. This is a pitfall that China is trying hard to avoid with its non-interventionism, as they have stated repeatedly.

    Therefore, it very much depends on the state of the world by then. My personal opinion is that China are already laying the groundwork for these 2 conditions to be met with their initiative to economically boost the global south with their road-and-belt initiative and BRICS. Giving third-world nations an alternative to engaging with the US-led capitalist economy, and taking away raw resources from the imperialist machine is key to this.