- source https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/12/magazine/semiconductor-chips-us-china.html
- archive https://archive.ph/s4Xvd
I always find it telling how authors have to walk on eggshells to even suggest something against the popular narrative, even when it's become so obvious that anyone who bothers to look into it can see the reality. The way this article starts with setting the scene as sort of relaxed, and how the title reads like "We're obviously super great and everything, but is it possible that maybe just this once we're wrong?"
It's the same with the Ukraine conflict. It wasn't until the catastrophic failure of a counterattack that people even began suggesting that it might have been a disaster, or that Ukraine is flawed - at least in more public media - and even then, the earlier stuff starts off so... "Well obviously the Ukrainians are in the right and totally could win, but maybe this was a bad idea".
I don't know, I just find it pretty telling in our freedom-loving society, which values Free Press and Free Speech, that every mainstream journalist acts like they'll get executed if they report something that displeases their masters. I mean, getting fired and blacklisted from a major media outlet would probably serve the same purpose anyway, so...
It's kind of funny how we've now reached a point where the effectiveness of US propaganda is actually starting to become a serious problem for US. Mainstream political discourse has a very narrow Overton window, and anybody who dares voice views that don't fall within the allowed spectrum of opinion is marginalized and silenced. This created a powerful echo chamber where everybody just mindlessly repeats the narrative knowing that saying anything different would be career ending. Naturally, this leads to people drinking their own koolaid because they're never exposed to any contrary views. This kind of environment makes it impossible to pass any rational policy.
It's even wilder when you consider that the gap between the "left" and "right" in the US is closing despite partisanship being fiercer than ever. Both sides are virtually identical at this point, probably more so than any other point in history. Democrats may spout lip service to progressive causes, but don't lift a finger and consistently aid Republican causes. Both parties constantly claim election tampering and the democracy being corrupt, they just disagree on who's responsible. Both support war and corporate power. I'm sure historically the "progressive" party has always been a weak, lying power, but now it feels so bald-faced that I'm amazed anyone can still delude themselves.
The question is, is the US finally going to cross the line and just admit to what they are in some fascist coup, or will the "progressives" accomplish some meager win for human rights at the end and draw millions back into the illusion? I can't tell if it's always been like this and I'm just seeing it for the first time, or if it really is becoming more and more obvious, more unwieldy, closer to collapse.
I think it's pretty likely that there will be some sort of an event like January 6th, that will be used to justify actual fascism in US. Both parties are rapidly militarizing the police and passing draconian laws against protesting and organizing. Much of the state machinery is already in place, and they just need a good excuse to deploy it at this point.
I wouldn't be surprised if they're just waiting for one of the myriad left-leaning orgs to do something like January 6th to justify an anti-communist purge and takeover. Doesn't even have to be actual socialists. It just has to be enough for the media to spin into a justification. I can see it now: every socialist or socdem org being outlawed, any liberal who doesn't become an ardent anti-communist getting arrested for questioning, etc. Finishing what McCarthy started.
After all, all those handy "anti-insurrection" laws didn't come into effect until after the right tried their embarrassing coup. And all of those laws happen to be applicable to any leftist org "trying to overthrow the government". I could see some extremely agitated Antifa action escalating via interference and the media just making it out to be a fullblown takeover. I know people working for the government who swear up and down that Antifa is a highly organized, evil, foreign communist threat because other friends in the government tell them so. It really wouldn't take much convincing.
I love how any leftist movement like Antifa or even right-wing is always blamed on foreigners with the US. Talk about US interference and suddenly it's taking away the agency of the people living in those countries.
Also disturbing and funny how even government workers and officials have the same brainworms as a Facebook grandma.
To ghouls, losing the power and privilege by getting fired/blacklisted probably feels pretty close to an execution. Of course I don't think many of these ghouls have any opinions inside them based enough to get actually executed...for now.
True. But I meant that it feels like an execution. If I were middle-class and could, y'know, relax and enjoy life when I'm not working, I'd probably feel the darkest despair losing a position like that and effectively being blacklisted in the only career field I have experience in. I've always been poor, and am still struggling, still feeling the axe against the neck so to speak. I could only imagine how it must feel to think you're safe and prosperous, only to be thrust down to my position or worse (at least I have a job, and a promising career if I put my mind to it). If you're invested in paying off a house or car, in raising a family or sending a child to a nice school, and suddenly you lose the means to do so, well that just makes it worse.
It's just interesting to see that (on some level) even libs, who think we're so much better and kinder than other countries, recognize they could lose their cushy positions and descend to the level the majority of Americans are at. The fact that they know this implies they're aware of how fucked up it all is, but still they think what they fantasize about other countries doing is worse.
It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out. The West has been cutting costs in its education system for years, while China has continuously invested billions. Seems pretty obvious who'll come out on top. Cutting China from the West will only lead to Western technology becoming obsolete. I wonder how long until the West is forced to start copying and reverse engineering China's electronics. It'll also be interesting to see how these racist societies will rationalize this.
This point is one that I'll disagree with. The capability of a country to develop technology isn't dependent on basic education but on higher education. In that regard, US education has seen record high expenses... The problem is, of course, that the costs are passed on and are also at record high.
But how is American academic expenditure actually applied? Pay raises for administration and shiny new buildings cost a lot but aren't actually productive. A Chinese university could spend $50m on a new lab while an American school could plow $100m into a new football stadium. Looking at the expenditure alone you'd expect the American school to come out ahead academically, yet that obviously isn't the casem
To some extent I agree, but at the same time American funding for research at universities is astonishingly high. There's a reason that international experts still widely regard US research to be more impactful - there's more funding, more economic incentive, and more students.
China is experiencing a sort of brain drain where all it's brightest STEM majors are going to MIT/Stanford/CalTech/Berkeley rather than staying in the country.
isn't the brain drain already reversing? as in more students are staying in China, i mean.
To some extent, but not really? At the bachelor's level I'd agree but at the doctorate level I really don't think so... And honestly? That's probably a good thing. Diversity of thought is important for innovation, but the problem is that these people leave and few return because the job market at the doctorate level is still superior in the US than it is in China.
They were coping by saying it was a limited production run but Huawei just announced two more phones using the same chip so everything points to Huawei being able to make things at scale now.
The only cope they have to fall back on is that the chip is "only" 7nm and is about 3 generations behind. 3 generations in chip terms is 2 or 3 years, and to go from absolutely nothing 2 years ago to only 2 or 3 years behind the state of the art is huge.
Extra impressive since China had to build up all the surrounding industries like design software and lithograpy machines from nothing as well. By putting these sanctions on China, the US may have created the only country on earth that has complete vertical integration of chip manufacturing.
Exactly, we see that western companies managed to go through these 3 generations in a few years, and there's no reason to expect that it's going to take China longer. If anything, I'm expecting China will be able to do it faster because the techniques for doing this are now known, and Chinese researchers know which approaches to pursue. Furthermore, nothing stops China from just hiring the researchers that were involved in developing western chips.
And yeah, the fact that China managed to create this whole industry domestically effectively overnight is incredibly impressive.
By putting these sanctions on China, the US may have created the only country on earth that has complete vertical integration of chip manufacturing.
I bet sanctions were the first step and I expect sabotage will soon start if it hasn't already
Depending on how conspiracy brained you are, there was a mysterious fire at ASML's factory that destroyed an EUV machine ordered by China right before the sanctions. Some people also say that there were a group of chip engineers bound for China on MH370.
and to go from absolutely nothing 2 years ago to only 2 or 3 years behind the state of the art is huge.
It would have been described as impossible by most western "experts" barely months ago
Hell, some of them are still coping and saying it is impossible
Competition is good, unless it's competition from [enemy country] on [critical industry].
Same BS as with the WSJ opinion article that didn't want Chinese electric cars on Europe because European car manufactures wouldn't be able to compete.
Non Western countries competing with each other to produce commodities for practically nothing
Non Western countries competing with the west to produce high tech manufactured goods
The real problem is that the US has shown their hand: theo willingness to use sanctions purely for economic purposes makes those sanctions not only useless in the long run, but detrimental to the American goal of maintaining globalization (and thus reliance on American technology). I guarantee you that India is currently asking itself how it can develop a strong domestic semiconductor industry and that the African Union is trying to secure semiconductor supply from multiple players right now.
In fact, this crosses beyond semiconductors and into every technology that the West currently dominates. Aircraft, engines, materials science, pharmaceuticals... the weaponization of sanctions has pushed and will continue to push the world towards a deglobalized, multipolar entity where domestic capabilities are prized once again. In fact, I expect a mass hiring of PhD students into the Chinese academic system soon to elevate China's research capability while stealing talent away from the US.
Biden knew all of this. Why do it, then?
Biden knew all of this. Why do it, then?
The answer is as usual: because this is how US imperialism operates. This is how they landed after decades of political practice in imperialism and this is what earned them the hegemony. Remember that US isn't the secret cabal operating in a small room and deciding everything with pushing sliders like in computer game. It's an ossified bureocracy with incredible inertia which not only can't just change its course, but it can't even institutionally devise any alternative to the good old methods of intensifying exploitation because it has all of the equally ossified influence groups behind them which aren't interested in anything that could intentionally decrease the profits. Especially in fastly changing world. They will be of course eventually forced to do it, but it will be too late and too little.
Note how even centrally planned economies had huge prolems with changes. Those that still exist managed it when USSR destruction radically changed the world 30 years ago, but the cost was great.
Aircraft
Is that why F-35 crash every other week?
Engines
Remind me, why's NASA using Soviet rocket engines?
materials science
Questionable, but aight
Pharmaceuticals
Germany would like a word
no need to use those arguments, qwest admits chinese lead: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker
I'm tired of the myth of USian technological supremacy. You have no idea how much. Especially given how much of it is due to looting and desecrating USSR's still warm corpse
It's hard to argue that Boeing is churning out less efficient planes than Comac, that Comac is using the CFM LEAP, that the manufacturing of those engines uses technologies that no one else has mastered, and that the US approves the most new drugs by far.
These are essential not only for military applications but for logistical ones.
Sanctions really are the biggest own goal.
It would be the LEAP not the PD-14 in the MC-21, if not for sanctions. In normal conditions, it's a winner takes all market no matter how tiny the difference is every cent counts to carriers. Only the single most efficient engine available would've made sense and it turns out sanctions did just that.
The sanctions are the largest boon to Chinese semi tool companies; they were snubbed by big name Chinese tech beforehand. Now, fear and uncertainty of supply weighs down the western competition. ASML in China has been brought down to SMEE's level; next year, ASML can't sell anything more advanced than what SMEE can make.
SMIC would have the same issues as Global Foundries did with justifying the investment in 7nm. The few fabless companies in China that use leading edge processes are wedded to TSMC. If Huawei wasn't there as a guaranteed customer, SMIC wouldn't have been able to get their investment to pay off. Huawei didn't even consider domestic alternatives outside of what they themselves make before the sanctions. The Mi 10 Ultra, with a QCOM SoC, had more domestic parts than the Huawei equivalent.
Even advanced engines can't redeem the F-35 though, it's still slower than the JF-17.
Aw, what's the matter, little Yankee got his feefees hurt?
F-35 crashing example. Literally first link off Google
Russian rocket engines in NASA. I'll even use Wikifedia for your convenience!
I agree they probably should have linked it earlier, but it’s interesting you’re still going on about it instead of the actual content now that you have it
western analyst: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/critical-technology-tracker
The west will defo contrive some sort of nuclear conflict rather than gracefully give up its hegemony.
In this scenario we will have to be desperate saboteurs with no regard for our life or political aspirations for the country.
China recently signed a deal with Russia to purchase enriched uranium. Obviously China is a nuclear power and has its own reactors and enrichment facilities, so buying more from the Russians suggests China is expanding its nuclear arsenal as well.
Cuban Missile Crisis, but what if the soldiers actually believed their country's propaganda?
Is it finally here? Did our calls for death to Amerikkka finally become reality?
Yeah but who would have thought Huawei would be the ones to pull it off? Wasn't on my bingo card.
they're fucked, no?
you have anything (big and lib preferably NYT, WP) on the efficacy of the sanctions yog?
also the archive links are much appreciated
Most of the articles focus on Russia at the moment, but here are a few I've seen.
- NPR article on why sanctions don't work, with a bit of copium thrown in https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2023/04/11/1169072190/why-sanctions-dont-work-but-could-if-done-right (https://archive.ph/HPJIf)
- one from the economist https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-the-economic-war-against-russia-has-failed/ (https://archive.ph/DCpgR)
- The Guardian admits sanctions on Russia failed https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/21/the-west-tightening-russian-sanctions-a-sign-of-failure (https://archive.ph/7HRMC)
- Asia Times explains why western sanctions are based on flawed premises https://asiatimes.com/2023/06/the-false-and-failed-logic-of-western-sanctions/ (https://archive.ph/Debo6)
- there's also an actual paper explaining why economic sanctions don't work https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539368
It really is. ARM chips are the future of computing, due to their energy efficiency. The fact that Huawei's are so good so quickly is a major blow to the US.
Specifically, RISC based chips. As I recall Chinese companies are focusing on RISC-V as opposed to ARM since RISC-V is an open architecture.
RISC
Specifically Loongson (or, as it's sometimes called, loong64)
The Bureau of Industry and Security versus the full weight of the Chinese government
How about Samsung, Apple, Google, Nokia, Ericsson, Comcast, AT&T, Telecom etc. versus Huawei in 2018? They could have had this "fair" fight instead, they specifically chose what is coming to them
