• Tankiedesantski [he/him]
    ·
    edit-2
    1 year ago

    A few points

    • 2014 data is really old when it comes to the PLAN since it's been on a building spree in the last 5 years or so. According to Wikipedia, the Chinese fleet totals 2.2 million tonnes in 2022, which is still less than the US fleet but 3x the 2014 number you cited.
    • Tonnage is a good data point, but can be misleading. The US has more bases and long range policing commitments, which means that on average they tend to design bigger ships to carry more fuel/provisions for longer voyages. The US auxiliary fleet is also a proportionally larger chunk of its tonnage since it had to project power all around the world. China mostly only cares about its back yard so its ships can worry less about range.
    • Despite what I just said about the US being focused on projecting power, US naval power projection has only been demonstrated to be effective against people who can effectively fight back. Consider this: when a modern ship has fired its compliment of missiles, it can't reload at sea. It has to go back to a base and get topped up there. A Chinese ship can withdraw up one of China's many rivers or heavily defended coastal bases for resupply. If Chinese missiles take out bases in Japan and Korea, American ships have to sail all the way back to Guam or Hawaii for reloading.
    • Many of China's small warships are dedicated ship-killing missile boats instead of anti-submarine or mine warfare auxiliaries like Western navies favor. These were the exact kinds of boats that gave the USN such a headache during the Millenium Challenge.
    • A head to head comparison of naval strength is only relevant if both fleets are going to sail out to the middle of the pacific and have a fight. In reality, you also have to consider Chinese shore based anti-ship missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles, aircraft, etc. The US can maybe call upon bases in Japan and South Korea in a Taiwan crisis, but that's a few bases versus the strategic depth of all of China.
    • Assian_Candor [comrade/them]
      ·
      1 year ago

      Big ships = small brains

      They can’t defend missiles. Big tonnage few ships means temporarily floating artificial reefs