Another factor is the economic damage that the west is suffering as the result of the sanctions war with Russia. Europe in particular is now going into a deep recession, and having to keep pumping money into NATO is only going to make the problem worse. We're already starting to see bickering amongst European countries, and internal dissent rising. I expect these trends to continue going forward. Meanwhile, a large chunk of neocons in US now sees European theatre as a distraction from China. If the war in Ukraine is decisively lost then it's entirely possible that US decides to abandon Europe and focus on Asia instead.