I want future generations to look at this question thread and marvel at our predictions and probably make lots of fun of us 😂
Imo the late 2020's through 2030's are going to be a hot war that will determine the leading ideology and superpower for the next century.
I believe China will win this for many reasons, the biggest being due to the leadership of the imperial core being too busy sniffing its own farts and lining the pockets of the bougousie. Even with nuclear weapons, I imagine the people in power will flee/be deposed by spies/disgruntled citizens/class traitors which will limit the damage done.
I believe that socialism is coming in our lifetimes but it will take a bloodbath to get there. Communism itself will require a lot of adjustment of beliefs and re-education so I'm thinking 2100 if I had to pick a year.
I don’t know if they are crazy enough to start WWIII. The columnists are but the senior pentagon officials have to be smarter. My guess would be another war of attrition with China where the US will have its proxy forces whittled down until the empire is no longer a military threat. If full on WWIII happens we’re all dead.
I don’t know if they are crazy enough to start WWIII.
The US alone has repeatedly tried to start World War III. It's the restraint of other countries and sheer dumb luck that has prevented it.
Look at the US poking Russia for over a decade about red-line issues on their border. They barely give a shit that it's a nuclear power and they'll use any excuse to declare that there was an attack on a NATO country to ramp up the pressure even more. US ghouls don't know how to stop or deescalate, they only know how to argue about different ways to destroy their enemies no matter what.
Things are going to get very bad once the US is actually backed into a corner. It acts completely recklessly when it's under very little threat.
I don’t know if they are crazy enough to start WWIII.
Perhaps not intentionally, but that won’t matter once we’re dead: List of nuclear close calls
I know about the close calls. There may be nuclear war by some stupid accident. I’m not putting my money on it. On the other hand the US might a wild card once they realize they’re no longer too dog.
For humanity to survive we need a majority socialist world by 2100. With the fall of US hegemony and the rise of China the world will be much better for socialism to thrive. There will still be fascist holdouts in current imperialist nations for a while, but fascism is too unsustainable to win. If communism will win and not barbarism I expect to see a lot of progress in my lifetime (assuming I don’t get martyred or something). I think the scenario in Parable of the Sower is very realistic. We are the earthseed of this world. Capitalism will probably die in the next two centuries whether it’s in socialism or barbarism. Everything ends eventually.
Edit: my estimates are conservative btw, capitalism is deteriorating very rapidly and climate change is coming fast. However I am not sure what kind of role reactionaries on the right side of de-dollarization will have (India, Saudi Arabia…)
The defeat of capitalism is a process of fits and starts and the subjugation (but not immediate elimination) of the bourgeoisie. That will take a very long time to complete.
Anti-capitalist revolution, though? I think we will see a lot of that if US influence continues to deteriorate, though it really depends on the exact approach taken by China et al ends up being towards smaller countries. For example, imagine if Chavez was elected in Venezuela in a few years and the US and UK were too tied up in knots to apply absolute pressure. Imagine they had 80% of their trade intact even if the US and UK applied as much economic pressure as they could. You can assume the SocDem/DemSoc project in Venezuela would be less disrupted, less in a siege mentality. But what would happen if the communists there built and defended lots of communes as separatists after a few years? Do China et al support the SocDems over the communists? They very well could in the name of stability. The new order may appear aesthetically much less radical even though the primary imperialists have been kneecapped.
Overall I am optimistic about overall developments. I think we will see a second and more lasting set of decolonization efforts, this time de-neocolonization and with more left involvement.
A big question mark is how the US reacts to the loss of its dominant position. I doubt that will go smoothly.
I can't see it happening in my lifetime, but as conditions continue to degrade I'd like to believe alternatives will present themselves by pure necessity. When global warming hits +4°C, I should hope people would start breaking into the shelters the rich are hoping to ride out the apocalypse in.
Best guess: before 2030.
Best guess, specific year: 2024.
Too busy to type out a 'why' but just want to throw my prediction into the hat.
I need you to elaborate and pass me some of your hopium, your shit must be so strong
There’s going to be a [thermo]nuclear* war with China leading everyone to realize both sides bad, only Gonzalo good. Then there will be an anti-revisionist Trotskyist-posadist-Maoist world revolution.
*we need a wisconcom emoji
We really do, that rant made me cry laughing for like 5 minutes when I first read it
Fingers crossed, only 6-12 more months of capitalism would be pretty fantastic. I...can't really see that much change happening in such a short amount of time though.
