Third post tonight but I'm posting anyway.
Personally, I don't see how the Palestinian resistance has any chance of winning this conflict unless Hezbollah and/or a foreign nation like Lebanon, Syria, or Egypt for instance joins in.
There's a tendency for video game thought with things like this. The conflict doesn't have to end in a military confrontation where the blue units kill all the red ones. Vietnam didn't really directly beat America in the field, they won by being tenacious and sticking it out beyond the occupation's patience.
The entity has to exterminate its opposition to 'win'. Palestinians just have to resist until they give up. It's kinda trite and there is a real risk that things get very bad, I won't deny that, but only one side needs a total victory here. Any occupier who throws in the towel and goes back home, anyone who decides not to come because of the risk, any negotiation, these are all victories for a resistance movement.
And things unravel in ways we don't anticipate. Things look impossible until they don't.
The entity has to exterminate its opposition to ‘win’.
Isn't that exactly what the entity is attempting to do right now? By the constant air strikes against Gaza. By blockading vital supplies like food, water, and electricity. It has been just a few days, and already over a 1000 people were killed. What is that if not an extermination campaign against the people of Gaza?
I don't want to be a defeatist. But it seems that if the resistance can't find a way to make that stop, things don't look well...
For sure, they have some sort of plan. With all the planning and preparation that went into the operation, for sure they have also considered how the entity will retaliate, and prepared accordingly. But I don't know what their plan is now. Reading through the news thread on here doesn't make things look hopeful. Whatever the resistance is going to do now, I hope they succeed.
(Disclaimer that I'm an outsider who has to draw conclusions on limited information. Palestinian comrades, please correct me if I go the facts wrong.)
It's bleak for sure, a lot of people are likely to die in retaliation. I am not minimizing this, but it's been the case my entire life. And somehow in spite of intensive surveillance, a siege and indiscriminate airstrikes Palestinian capacity to fight has actually improved in this time frame.
Look at this in light of previous operations. This is by far the most successful counterattack they have ever pulled off. They are getting better.
And they have nowhere else to go. The entity would have to forcibly expel or industrially eradicate them with like, camps and gas and shit. And I don't think the rest of the Arab world would just watch them do that. We've seen harsh reprisals before. That tactic isn't working in Palestine, this operation demonstrates that conclusively.
the problem is that the very existence of palestinians is a threat to the israeli ruling ideology of zionism. ultimately, vietnam was a country half a world away from america that had very little to do with it. losing vietnam was embarrassing to the american leadership, but it didn't call the ideological basis of their power into question.
How are the Israelis going to just go home? The U.S. was able to go home in Vietnam because it was fighting in a place that wasn't theirs, which is a luxury the South Vietnamese didn't have. To the Israelis, occupied Palestine is their home, albeit stolen.
I mean, Bibi is from Philadelphia. The entire point of the settler project is they are bringing people in from elsewhere. A ton of these people are Americans or Canadians etc. There are second and third generation folks now but a lot of them still have roots in the imperial core where they moved in from.
remove the settlers, or honestly if they're willing to put in the work for reparations they can stay
Drawn out border conflict on multiple fronts. Same way apartheid South Africa was defeated and Namibia won it's independence.
Only realistic way that's happening is if Hezbollah gets involved.
Lebanese government, I honestly don't know too much about them, but I don't think they're going to get involved.
Egypt I heard got bombed recently just for trying to send humanitarian aid to Gaza, they just backed down, and they are too friendly to the West, they aren't getting involved.
Syria is in a civil war.
Jordan I think is too neutral as well.
Iran and North Korea probably would kick Israel's ass if they could but they're too far away to do anything outside of nuking them in the case of the DPRK.
Outside of Hezbollah, it looks pretty bleak unless Palestine can successfully liberate itself.
Thank you for writing this. It has reduced my anxiety somewhat.
I know that the Palestinians need more than that but at least this betters their odds.
Israel dropped white phosphorus in Lebanon so either actively pushing or cowed, I'd say.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/15/iran-warns-israel-of-regional-escalation-if-gaza-ground-offensive-launched
If it all works out well, I want to hear the full story of how they did it all
To thwart Mossad must have taken incredible measures...imperial partisans will have much to learn from them
they probably have a plan, but that plan could depend on other parties doing things that they might not do and they're turbo-fucked if it falls apart.
they're fucked anyway and so was the rest of palestine, but it'll be much worse in the short term either way.
At the very least, the Palestinians have gravely hurt the reputation of the West as a whole and are another blow to its hegemony.
Ukraine, Nigeria, Gabon and so on. The pressure is mounting and the economies of Europe are declining.
That being said, the road to freedom for the Palestinians is long and this is just one of many steps
I can only see them winning with direct intervention from Iran and Hezbollah. Hezbollah uses this opportunity to launch an attack from the north. Iran starts sending barrages of missiles towards Israel's electrical grid and military targets, and Palestinians use guerilla tactics to distract them. The rest of the Middle East should embargo Israel during this conflict.
This actually seems like the perfect opportunity to attack, since the US army is drained of resources. The US strategic oil reserve is also pretty low, so if the US starts making threats, Iran can simply close the straight of Ormuz and the price of oil would skyrocket overnight. But I don't think any of this will happen.
Just to be clear, is your question why doesn’t Iran send “missile barrages” intended to secure the military defeat and destruction of a nuclear armed power which hates them?
Iran would never do that though because Israel maintains an undeclared nuclear weapons capability.
In terms of some kind grand treaty and international recognition? Not anytime soon. Things are rarely so clear-cut.
However, a lot of occupiers left Israel after these attacks. Those are concrete wins because that is exactly what should be happening. Palestine has little left to lose, this is their home and they are already in concentration camps. Many Israelis have other citizenships and can go back home anytime they want. Who do you think is inclined to fight harder.
I think a better question might be can Israel ever actually win this, and the answers to that is no. Not without a genocide even worse than anything we have ever seen to date. There will always be people willing to fight against the invaders.
People saying there should be all out attacks by neighbors need to get off their Armchair General chair imo or stop playing Age of Empires. Like please actually consider realistically what will happen and analyze materially what is going on.
If Iran was to launch a all out attack on Israel then Israel and the US would likely escalate to the point of using their nukes. Then it’s an Armageddon situation, and the left, and ultimately the mass of people in the Middle East, are not going to benefit. To the extent that anyone will benefit it will be Islamists, who’s objectives and interests are fundamentally at odds with those of socialist movements.
If anyone thinks this would be productive for the Middle Eastern left then they haven’t gone their head screwed on right.
Those other nations are not led by idiots or ultra edge lords on the internets. They are ware that to attack Israel at this point would be catastrophic for everyone involved. They have their own interests and will likely use diplomatic pressure. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’d be shocked.
Hezbollah is different as they are an Islamist group which have someone like a state within a state in Lebanon. They have shelled, but have not launched anything like a massive attack, not least because if they did either Israel or even the US may the intervene seriously in Lebanon or stay bringing out their more serious weapons of war so to speak. They have more interest, as always, like the leadership of Hamas, in milking the deaths of countless Palestinians for their own political benefit and legitimacy. Any other view of these groups is naive imo.
In terms of how the Palestinians can win, well I’d point first of all how neither Palestinians nor the range of opposition is identical to Hamas, which is a mistake that people on this site still incapable of not making. They are not democratic representatives of either Gazas nor obviously the Palestinians in the other territories.
The way Palestinians would win is by brining Israel economically to its knees and forcing them to accept a Palestinian state, though at this point. I’m pessimistic no matter the outcome. Just as Leninists recognize that indiscriminate terrorism is not going to being about revolution, but mass-organized labour groups are, the same applies in Palestine. It tells me volumes that people on this site don’t seem to be aware or are conveniently ignoring that Hamas, like the PA and Israel, have actively prevented any organic, mass labour movements from emerging in a form like the First Intifada. They are terrified of that possibility because like all Islamists they are acutely aware that that is antithetical to their interests.
Its already an uphill battle organizing in a regular capitalist society, but in a situation as uniquely oppressive as Israel is to Palestine, unfortunately sometimes you have to make due with what you got. Nobody here said that Hamas is the democratic representative of Palestinians, but a fairly large chunk of them accept them as way more fair and less hostile than Israel.
Lesser of two evils does not make them good. They are accepted because there is no alternative. Something that Hamas has tried very hard to maintain.
I never said it makes them good, but I would like to see more reading about how Hamas tried hard to maintain that, if you have links.
Yeah I agree with that. But I think that even in the best of outcomes the situation is going to be pretty dire.
Would not Hamas rule be a necessary step in the healing process? Was not the Taliban taking over Afghanistan an unfortunately necessary step that is incrementally better than US control of Afghanistan?
I’m not sure. At times I think so and at others I’m more sceptical. I in no way claim to have an answer. The situation is worse than a dilemma. However it’s a dilemma because two things im confident of is (1) that Hamas will (unfortunately in several key respects) remain the main armed opposition capable of opposing Israel, and so will inevitably play a key role in the struggle against Israel; and (2) that they will never be an organization who will lead to a long term solution to these issues nor will they introduce the socio-economic reforms and political revolution that Palestine needs, even in the best of scenarios. Though Palestinian comrades seem to still see cooperation with them as tactically necessary though is does make me worry for them for obvious reasons. Their opinion does have to be respected.
Hence my pessimism (which does not imply that there should be no struggle, but that it should focus on making the most of the concrete situation presented. It in fact obligates even more rigorous struggle, and the most important thing those in western countries can do is show support for Palestine and make clear that their countries are supporting a genocidal apartheid fascist state. Ideally there would be more mass demonstrations and support attempts to pupressure but hat is looking difficult. But then again who knows how things will develop as this shit continued to get worse.
But I also this that this support should not be explicitly describing Hamas in positive terms other than as the only vehicle Gazas (and Palestinians in a sense) have for militarily opposing Israel, though I also disagree with Hamas’s tactics (not that that matters of course, like who am I), and think other mass radical labor organization to economically squeez Israel would have been ideal, but I also recognize that the situation is so fucked and Israel has so brutally sabotaged any other alternative that that has become impossible for the time being. Another reason in terms of optics I think they need to be distinguished is that the one of the best weapons that Western media has is the trump-card of anti-semitism, and Yh when you see people holding signs like ‘queers for Hamas’ or ‘Jews for Hamas’ it looks insane if you know much about Hamas’s or Islamist ideology regarding Jewish people and what Hamas media and charters have said about it over the years, or when you know their social positions such as on LGBT issues (I.e that it’s an evil deviance the Jews have spread to corrupt Muslims). Of course the reality is complicated by the fact that western media is already doing its utmost to destroy the distinction between support for Palestinians and strong ideological support for a group like Hamas. Though the real ambiguity’s and problem is that Hamas is still the main force through they exert there opposition for the time being. I’m not saying I’ve figured my way out of that other than by saying that we can’t condemn Palestinians decision and we mousy stand with them while also being honest Kong ourselves regarding the progressive potential and it’s limitations for the struggle when int his framework, which again is not to say that a better one is going to present itself any time soon.
On the Taliban given how extremely reactionary they are it does make that kind of judgment very emotionally difficult. My honest opinion is that it is unclear. Honestly a liberal bourgeois government would have been more advantageous to the growth of socialist politics imo. But that was also not realistically going to be produced by the Americans, given how brutally extractive and destructive their occupation was.
When Iran, Syria, Lebanon and Hezbollah join. Hezbollah already did.
Yep, this has to expand wider. The myth of their invincibility has already been broken. If the puppet regimes in the Gulf fall, that might also be a positive step. And Palestine is an issue close to many people's hearts there.
How does the presence of the American Carrier group influence this? In its role as a deterrent to surrounding nations that might want to get involved.
Idk but I think Hezbollah has promised to bomb US military bases if they get involved.
Yes, they shelled and killed multiple Israeli soldiers and destroyed multiple military vehicles
the Opporacle has decreed that Palestine will be free
Show
Show
there needs to be some kind coalition between Gulf States (and preferably Russia) i feel like. but that is unlikely since they are American client/puppet states. Lebanon probably doesn't war with Israel because of its internal issues. Egypt is ruled by an American puppet. Syria hasn't mentioned anything I think and they too have their own set of internal issues.
Though Putin said yesterday he is ready to help but he is not an arab not a muslim, the whole arab world is watching a massacre...
They need to capture Israeli hardware and recruit the Arab residents within Israel to enlarge their fighting force.
And throughout this, more and more settlers will likely leave. All but the most fascistic ones dedicated to colonialism.
That is, unless Israel begins to prevent their own citizenry from escaping.
We will see how it plays out. I don't like speculating about human lives but I wish the Palestinian resistance much success.
palestinians can't win because there's too much money and propagandized people to ever let them; instead the best they can hope for is survival like the many other oppressed people before them and at least for now
isreals entire army is 300k, the combined might of hamas, syria, lebanon and hezbollah will easily trump this and they know it; they can only dedicate about 100k troops to each front and they are out numbered on all of them.
Isreal lost many conflicts as recently as 2006 to Lebanon/Hezbollah so dont be so sure.
