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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: June 2nd, 2023

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  • He predicts Harris will win citing 8 keys he uses:

     No primary contest and the party is largely behind her
    
     No sizable third party spoil
    
     In the short term and long term economies are good
    
     Biden made large policy changes like Paris accords, chips act, inflation reduction act
    
     No sustained social unrest
    
     No meaningful white house scandals
    
     Challenger charisma is limited to a narrow base
    

    The points against her are:

     Midterm gains by challengers
    
     Harris isn't the incumbent
    

    With Foreign policy failures and Foreign policy success left unchecked because she passed the majority of the keys.

    With those last two he says "The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza. Which is a humanitarian disaster, with no end in sight"