Cunigulus [they/them]

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Joined 3 years ago
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Cake day: April 27th, 2022

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  • I really get the sense that there's some kind of directive out to downplay natural disasters in the media in the US in recent years. It used to be something like the LA fires or Hurricane Helene destroying parts of NC would get days-long media extravaganzas - it was a good way to boost viewership and grab attention. Now the reporting is present, but kind of pushed off below the fold. I think maybe whoever does the soft censorship when it comes to geopolitics etc.. is suppressing US natural disaster coverage, maybe to prevent people from freaking out over climate change? Maybe to combat the general feeling of malaise and dysfunction settling in?

    Am I crazy or do any of you get the same impression?







  • I suspect Israel may have further plans for southern Syria that might involve antagonizing HTS more than even they can accept. There are ridges south of Damascus that would make an excellent defensive line from Mt. Hermon straight to the area just south of Damascus international airport in the desert. That whole chunk of Syria south of Damascus has about 40% Druze or Christian population and it's currently controlled by the Southern Operations Room which seems to have clear ties to both Russia and the Israelis. There's a highway connecting Israel to the main Druze settlement of As Suwayda, route 109. Every settlement along that highway is either Druze, Christian, or has been decimated by the war except for the first city along the highway, Nawa. So far the IOF hasn't moved too far from the former zone of occupation, apart from along the Lebanese border on Mt. Hermon and a small excursion to an intelligence base on a strategic hill near Al Harah. If you see them move on Nawa, which has a population of 60k mostly Sunni Muslims, I would take that as an indication that they basically want to take control of the entire part of the country south of Damascus and set up a puppet Druze region there.

    For now I don't see any indication that they're doing this. They'd have to take on the occupation and control of a population of at least half a million Muslim Syrians. That's the kind of thing they might want to disarm HTS-lead Syria before attempting.

    Edit: That part of Southern Syria is also one of the most fertile areas of the entire region, far more productive agriculturally than anything the Israelis occupy. It's basically the equivalent of Ukraine for the Nazis from a strategic point of view.






  • I'm wondering if Israel might try to set up some kind of Druze protectorate in Southern Syria. That bulge along the border corresponds to one of the Druze-inhabited regions.

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    The main region around As Suwayda, however, is quite a bit farther to the East and would require occupying a pretty large inhabited area of southern Syria with maybe as many as 500k non-Druze Muslim inhabitants. I don't know if Israel could handle that kind of operation with everything they have on their plate right now even if the new government in Damascus is cooperative. If they did pull it off it would be a permanent wedge between Syria and the inhabited areas of Jordan, also cutting off Syria from Southern Lebanon (this has been accomplished already).

    The below map was already floating around Twitter three days ago.

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  • So a few questions about what is happening with this sudden offensive by the rebels.

    The most proximate change in the geopolitical environment was the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. What is the connection here? Presumably Israel doesn't need to use the ceasefire to support such an attack, certainly this would have been even more useful to them while fighting was going on in Lebanon. Because so much of this is going through Turkey, the US must be involved as well.

    There's clearly some kind of behind-the-scenes dealing going on whether it's between Hezbollah, Israel, Turkey, the US (Biden people or incoming Trump people). It's hard to figure out exactly what the angle is and I've been puzzling over it all week. Is this a quid pro quo from Washington for the ceasefire? Is this Biden's foreign policy people throwing together one last hurrah for their Syrian proxies before Trump comes in and winds up the whole operation? Is there a Russia angle?




  • You can do Windows, sometimes you've gotta do Windows, but I highly recommend learning Linux. Just get a dual boot or a different drive running linux and set up something that works for what you need. If you're just doing general office work and some gaming Linux will do what you need. If you want to play a few specific games that don't work or need Adobe or Solidworks for work you'll need windows. It can be virtualized though!


  • He's not a good politician, but I have no reason to doubt he's relatively intelligent and ambitious. He'll bring the most brain-dead careerist Bush administration-era State Department officers to the fore. They'll turn the place into even more of an ideological concentration camp, where realist thought is severely punished, and cynical careerist backstabbing is the only driving force. It's going to be a wild ride. They'll probably start several wars in the next four years, and we're going to be stuck in conflict like Russia or Israel for the next decade based on the petty politics of these fools. It'll be the end of the empire though, and if they make things bad enough soon enough, we'll never be able to dream of starting a war with China.