Eldungeon2 [he/him]

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Joined 2 years ago
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Cake day: June 24th, 2023

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  • I think this will be a temporary reproachmont if it does happen. What's the problem with taking US money in the short term if you're expecting a rupture later they could simply leave the US high and dry and not repay the investment. A political or military conflict would reduce all this to monopoly money and the real economy (that is of course the cash, grass or gas economy, lol) would take over and the producers would have priority, right? US is the consumer market that seems like it can't be replaced (although the EU could have a reproachmont with Russia and reinstate their industry and consumer power, that's basically what much of the right wing populist want), likewise Chinese production can't be replaced. If the US tries to block the world from Chinese consumer and industrial goods it would be rejected globally and probably especially in the US itself. The belt and road in my estimation is an effort to industrialize the global south to compliment a future Chinese consumer economy. Even everything with Israel and Syria now... It's just that the victory is theirs to ruin.
    All in all it simply seems everyone is waiting to see what will happen and putting their best foot forward in anticipation of the Trump administration.










  • The Libyan scenario is beginning to play out. HTS didn't win as much as sanctions did and the hollowed out Baathist regime crumbled under its own weight. It's difficult to know how Russia will triangulate with Turkiye HTS and Iran. It seems fairly plain that HTS will target other minorities after the Kurds if they don't go into Iraq. I have to imagine that this is going to have a dialectic effect on Iran and Iraqi militias, but Iran is having to deal with internal contradictions and it's unclear if they have the material and will to get involved at least in Syria itself as it's now had its military bombed away.