MarmiteLover123 [comrade/them, comrade/them]
I looove Marmite!
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·4 hours agoThe attacks on oil infrastructure are performed by Ukrainian UAVs so far, so the US is not directly involved in that in the way that the US is involved in ATACMS attacks.
Yeah, and there's quite convincing evidence (in my eyes) to suggest that these were in fact ATACMS attacks, with a direct hit on an S-400 air defence system and cluster munitions strike on a Russian airbase in Kursk. I'll post that in the new megathread.
They got a Lion, it's definitely worth it. 1 lion for 10 000 soldiers is the best trade deal in the history of trade deals.
At this point, this website for me is just the body that carries this thread.
Same. I can now fulfill my eternal dream about posting about Marmite and missiles. Pure bliss really.
Except when the missiles kill innocent people, that's terrible of course.
Russia only has a few of these missiles' and also the 'US is going to reverse engineer it from the scraps at Yuzhmash'. Dnepropetrovsk has at least one Patriot system, which failed to intercept it.
Might be true at this point in time that Russia only have a few operational Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) weapons, but they can easily make more, of Oreshnik and other types that we may not know about (Putin mentioned work on a whole arsenal of medium and intermediate range systems in his second speech).
There's no need for reverse engineering, the United States has envisioned and prototyped similar systems in the past, based off of MIRV capable Trident SLBMs and Minuteman III ICBMs. MIRV kinetic penetrators, and tungsten submunitions were suggested. Now the question is if the US would ever give Ukraine a CPS weapon, and in my opinion, I cannot see that happening at all. There is no way Ukraine is going to get given such a weapon by the United States.
There's no chance for the patriot system to intercept it as when the missile is in one piece, it's flying above it's engagement envelope. By the time the MIRVs are deployed, you've got 6 re entry vehicles travelling at Mach 10+, and once they deploy their submunitions, 36 munitions travelling at Mach 10+. It's simply too much to intercept, too many projectiles moving too fast.
He thinks the new missile is called Oreshnik because it looks like a hazel flower when it comes down.
It absolutely does look like that, I see it now.
More ballistic missile attacks by Ukraine against Russia in Kursk were reported on within the last hour, with an alleged simultaneous UAV attack against Russian oil assets in Kaluga Oblast (information is more sketchy on that at this time). There is audible air defence activity being heard in Kursk. Pro Ukrainian sources are claiming that these attacks in Kursk made use of US made and targeted ATACMS missiles, as expected.
I'd argue there has already been some transfer of technology to DPRK, with pictures of Kim Jong Un with Lancet drones and talking about wanting to our them into serial production within North Korea Itself, and the recent testing of a new North Korean ICBM with a potential maximum range of over 15 000km.
There was footage of what was likely a ballistic missile impact or interception, with a sonic boom, a visible projectile on a terminal trajectory, and resulting explosion. Pro Russia social media channels posted it as footage of "air defence systems working Kursk". The larger question is if it was an ATACMS missile, a Ukraine made ballistic missile like Hrіm-2, or a missile from their Soviet stockpiles such as Tochka-U. Since both sides have certain interests, Ukraine in expanding the war as pointed out, it's likely we will not know the answer to that question anytime soon. Russia could also have an interest in not admitting to it being a ATACMS strike, as committing to responding to every single attack could put Russia on an escalation trajectory that is undesirable, to say the least. You can also see this in how Russia says that their air defence systems shoot everything down, even when there is evidence to the contrary, done in an attempt to minimise escalation.
That quote is really cool in context and I wish more world leaders would speak like that..
Here are the words straight from Putin's mouth.
It is not a strategic weapon, it is not a weapon of mass destruction.
Yes this strike is absolutely calling Putin's bluff, along with France now saying that Ukraine can use their version of the Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile for deep strikes into Russian territory. The ball is absolutely in Putin's court, and now we wait to see if he really will target NATO installations with CPS weapons like Oreshnik, or any other IRBMs or MRBMs Russia may have that we do not know about.
NATO's nuclear doctrine is set to be revised (apparently with regards to the B61 tactical nuclear weapon) after Russia unveiled the novel Oreshnik IRBM, so there is an element of nuclear posturing. How real it is, we'll only know once the missiles, bombs and strategic bomber aircraft start flying...
It could easily be converted a nuclear weapon if the need arises, but that is not the current intention.
Putin claimed in his second press conference that Oreshnik is a novel, strictly non-nuclear system that is not a WMD, developed very rapidly, describing it as a precision-strike weapon capable of hitting targets across Europe.
So for now the intention does not seem to be a nuclear weapon, but a CPS weapon.
It's extremely irresponsible and NATO has decided to continue these attacks. I have no idea what the next target will be, Putin did say that military assets of countries supplying the weapons and intelligence for these attacks are potential targets. If I was stationed in a US military base in Europe somewhere, I would be very worried right now.
That is true, though they should be easily able to create and deploy one if required. The first candidate for a CPS weapon was actually a MIRV capable Trident SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile) with conventional warheads/kinetic energy penetrators, or tungsten submunitions. This idea was raised during the Bush Jr administration. This was eventually abandoned as it was theorised to appear too similar to a nuclear weapons launch. The Obama administration did prototype a CPS weapons system based on the MIRV capable Minuteman III ICBM in 2010 though, so the option for such a weapon is still on the table, even as the United States' hypersonic weapons program, that was set to be the prime candidate for a CPS weapons system instead of ICBM and SLBM based systems, is in shambles.
A constant conventional missile exchange between NATO and Russia easily has the ability to snowball into a nuclear conflict though...
Yes I read Putins speech and trust that a warning would come.
For me it's not about trust, trust can be easily broken. For me it's that there's a mutual interest not to start a nuclear conflict (at least I hope so, despite all the risk taking by NATO), and an Oreshnik launch, or similar CPS launch, could easily be mistaken for a nuclear weapons launch, so there will be advanced warnings to prevent any cases of "mistaken identity" with regards to it being a conventional weapon or a nuclear weapon.
This shit keeps me up at night.
It also does, and I don't even live in a NATO country or Russia.
We see that work is active around the world on developing high‐precision conventional weapons systems that in their strike capabilities come close to strategic nuclear weapons. Countries that have such weapons substantially increase their offensive capability.
- Vladimir Putin, 19 June 2013.
CPS weapons allow "to realize such opportunities as the creation of high precision strategic weapons with non-nuclear warheads and a practical global range. Russia can create non-nuclear, high precision weapons based on intercontinental rockets in the event that the USA also works on designing such a weapon".
- Commander of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, Sergey Karakaev, 31 December 2012.
Russia has been warning NATO for over a decade now. NATO needs to start listening.
Posadas walked so Blinken could run.
In "positive" news, at least Oreshnik is not a nuclear weapon, so if Russia does decide to fire one into Europe, the nukes won't start flying immediately. Russia has committed to giving advanced warnings for Oreshnik IRBM strikes, they say in order to minimise civilian casualties. I think it's so an Oreshnik strike is not mistaken for a nuclear strike, when the missile is launched. CPS weapons change the escalation model and calculus in a potential NATO - Russia conflict.
But yes, it does seem that the US, and certain NATO members in the UK and France, are determined to die on this hill, the rest of us be damned. They are prepared to directly participate in attacks against Russia while hiding behind Ukraine as a shield, and risk a potential nuclear war. It's absolutely maddening and anxiety inducing.
If the weapons start flying between Europe and Russia, I hope you make it to safety.
Confirmation from the Russian MoD, Russian Air Force linked telegram channels, video and photo evidence, and from Ukraine, that last night's ballistic missile attack on the Kursk region within Russia's internationally recognised borders, was in fact an ATACMS attack. The United States and Ukraine have once again attacked Russia with US made and targeted ATACMS missiles.
Russian sources say 8 ATACMS missiles were fired, and either all, or 7/8 missiles were intercepted. Video footage of an ATACMS strike with a cluster munitions warhead shows otherwise, with 4-5 seperate cluster munitions strikes visible. In the video, we can see an air defence site's location (as visible by the trail left by surface to air missiles) take a hit from a bunch of cluster munitions.
Videos and photos
Full video of the strike itself from a distance:
Twitter source
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Air defence site location and hit:
Video of the strike from the ground:
Twitter source
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Extended footage of the strike from the ground, showing the location of a Russian air defence system taking a hit:
Reddit source
There is photographic evidence of a destroyed 92N6E, NATO name: "Grave Stone", fire control radar vehicle from the S-400 air defence system. It is unknown if this vehicle was destroyed in last night's attack, or the previous attack on the 23rd of November, with claims of both. The pro Russian claims about this being an old photo from Crimea, or confusing it for a tracked radar vehicle, or claiming it's an 30N6E “Flap Lid” radar vehicle from the S-300 system, are false. The 92N6E is a wheeled vehicle, the photos from Crimea do not match (the antenna was still standing, and not destroyed), and the 30N6E vehicle has a different driver's cabin and headlight structure that does not match the photos, which do match the 92N6E. So an S-400 system has taken a hit.
photos
Destroyed 92N6E
Intact 92N6E
Ukraine also has claimed to destroy two launchers, there are no photos of that, though it is plausible with cluster munitions. If the 92N6E was operating in combat, it's likely that there will be casualties from such an attack. Ukrainian sources claimed to have killed 5 Russian troops, with no words on injuries. I don't think I have to explain how an attack with direct US involvement killing Russian service members within Russia itself could be a large escalation. It seems that, at least for now, Russia is attempting to de-escalate by claiming that it's air defence intercepted most to all of the missiles, even with evidence to the contrary.