China is set to smash international forecasts and Beijing’s official targets with domestic EV sales — including pure battery and plug-in hybrids — growing about 20 per cent year on year to more than 12mn cars in 2025, according to the latest estimates supplied to the Financial Times by four investment banks and research groups. The figure would be more than double the 5.9mn sold in 2022.
“They want to electrify everything,” said Liew. “No other country comes close to China.”
As China’s EV market tracked towards year-on-year growth of near 40 per cent in 2024, the market share of foreign-branded cars fell to a record low of 37 per cent — a sharp decline from 64 per cent in 2020, according to data from Automobility, a Shanghai-based consultancy.
Vincent Sun, an equity analyst covering China’s car sector for investment research group Morningstar, noted that several multinational carmakers, including Germany’s Volkswagen, were not expecting to release major new EV models in China until late 2025 or 2026.
China’s EV sales set to overtake traditional cars years ahead of west