I used to think that Trump would win in 2024, but watching the gop drop the ball on the midterms changed my mind about that. I think Biden has it pretty easily as long as
neither candidate has a major medical issue. Or a minor one in October.
republicans don't find a better strategy than trying to rile the hogs up about trans people
no major economic shift happens between now and the election. Just high inflation with low wage growth isn't enough to tip the needle imo
Obviously any of those are all reasonably likely to happen and who knows where things will end up when they do.
idk if republicans dropped the ball so much as they had to work against a popular movement against the ending of roe v wade... the democrats didn't give a shit about roe, but they literally told voters "if you vote for us we will restore Roe"... that wasn't true and they never intended to do anything about abortion... they never did it when they had more power. but it was enough to coopt a larger movement they had nothing to do with (or at least enough of the movement to siphon most of the energy away)... libs bought it up despite the fact that that decision should have had every lib questioning the very foundations of bourgeois democracy itself. (many did)
Dems think they can run on abortion as a national issue, and they might have some success doing it, but I doubt it will resonate the same way or overcome their fecklessness... They will probably spend very little time even discussing it, because it will highlight that they didn't do anything when they could have. for worse, it has become a local/state struggle now. people who live in states with legal abortion will feel secure and stop caring as much. as state efforts continue, and a trickle of states win back abortion rights, illegal abortion will be confined to states where the right-wing is so dominant that people there will feel it is useless to fight (or more likely, democrat politicians will think their state is "too conservative" for it to win). but the 2024 election is over a year away, so who knows. I just don't think the dems and their media apparatus care enough about abortion to make it a centerpiece of the campaign. They will likely spend their time talking about how trump is bad and giving him endless airtime.
I used to think that Trump would win in 2024, but watching the gop drop the ball on the midterms changed my mind about that. I think Biden has it pretty easily as long as
Obviously any of those are all reasonably likely to happen and who knows where things will end up when they do.
idk if republicans dropped the ball so much as they had to work against a popular movement against the ending of roe v wade... the democrats didn't give a shit about roe, but they literally told voters "if you vote for us we will restore Roe"... that wasn't true and they never intended to do anything about abortion... they never did it when they had more power. but it was enough to coopt a larger movement they had nothing to do with (or at least enough of the movement to siphon most of the energy away)... libs bought it up despite the fact that that decision should have had every lib questioning the very foundations of bourgeois democracy itself. (many did)
Dems think they can run on abortion as a national issue, and they might have some success doing it, but I doubt it will resonate the same way or overcome their fecklessness... They will probably spend very little time even discussing it, because it will highlight that they didn't do anything when they could have. for worse, it has become a local/state struggle now. people who live in states with legal abortion will feel secure and stop caring as much. as state efforts continue, and a trickle of states win back abortion rights, illegal abortion will be confined to states where the right-wing is so dominant that people there will feel it is useless to fight (or more likely, democrat politicians will think their state is "too conservative" for it to win). but the 2024 election is over a year away, so who knows. I just don't think the dems and their media apparatus care enough about abortion to make it a centerpiece of the campaign. They will likely spend their time talking about how trump is bad and giving him endless airtime.