I think where you are deviating from the wider hexbear opinion here, and also where I think you're wrong, is based in a belief that precedents are meaningful first off. Before this war was even thought about, these realities were already clear to all powerful people in the world. Acting from the basic material assumptions (and proving that they are ALREADY true) is not making them true. Not having nukes has been a death sentence to countries (eventually, without socialism) since the moment the first one existed. This war doesn't impact that nor how rational global actors work. The ability to do "naked aggression" literally never went away, it was just hidden in plain sight with shitty western justifications. Every world power understood this well before this war, and their rational/justifications won't be impacted. Only new material conditions to work from will arise. Russia's loss or success actually only would give 1 major new piece of info to the world: is it possible to offensively take in the Imperial core indirectly without the result being total destruction of yourself? That's what we're going to learn. We learned from Korea and Vietnam that fighting defensively can work. We learned from middle eastern imperial wars that guerilla struggle is possible to slowly tire out the US.
We will Also learn small details about fighting and material and weapons and strategy, of course. But the worldwide impact is literally just "is it possible to defend yourself from US interests WITH OFFENSE?"
Also I agree with CyborgMarx, best case scenario is Donbas is free to choose to be Russian along with Crimea and Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between NATO and Russia after a loss
You've obviously put some thought into my position here and tried to understand it, so I will do my best to return the favor.
Realpolitik is certainly prevalent, and my country is no stranger to this. Words on paper are only as good as people's willingness to do what it says. I completely agree that the majority of the time, "rules-based diplomacy" just means gunboat diplomacy with extra steps. However, that veneer of western justification at least kept the absolute worst impulses of imperialism at bay, even if just a bit. That "just a bit" part is important, because as you quite rightly say, new material conditions will result in new possibilities. What the result of those possibilities are is important. They directly affect my life in substantial ways.
The point about lessons and thinking about this in purely academic terms is difficult when you have friends and family of friends sucked into the conflict. It's very difficult for me to engage with a point as academic as this being so close to the conflict. I know that is an admission of a lack of impartiality and perspective, but it's the honest truth.
As I said in another comment in this thread, I see Russia as more fascistic and right-wing than Ukraine. So in my head, what you're saying with that final sentence is "Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between the global hegemon and even worse right wing fascists".
I disagree entirely that that "just a bit" exists at all. Direct imperial wars were limited only by the conditions and interests of the imperial power, and the justifications only resulted in extra work AFTERWARD the decisions were made to make convincing arguments (or find a way to hide the war).
With all due respect, you're not just influences by perspective or lack of impartiality, but by your own interests. Being just west of Ukraine means that the fascistic border for expropriation (I mean from the West, but also possibly from Russia) will come closer the further west Russia can push. You benefit at least minmially from global imperialism by having that expropriation lead to imports on your side. I don't blame you for desiring to not be hurt by that "border" movement, and I have to hope I will stay strong and support my comrades and movement when that inevitably comes to my place and not try to gain/maintain personal benefits. It's always violent, just usually somewhere else.
This article is the best description for my understanding of Fascism: https://redsails.org/really-existing-fascism/
Russia is just as fascist as every capitalist government. But so far, Crimea hasn't been experiencing the violence anymore than any other group and less than from the imperial core when they were under Ukraine. If "more fascist" means more violent and expropriating more", which is in line wiht that essay, then I think Russia is less fascist. They have legitimately experienced less of the expropriation than before. I think Donbas would be the same, and there's a chance that that continues westward as fascism attempts to consume the border regions for profits.
I think another point of contention here is that I have a fundamentally different understanding of what the word "fascist" means compared to you, which I'm glad you've identified and tried to rectify. Maybe we're just talking about different things. I'll read that essay when I have the time, and hopefully the next conversation I have with you I'll be a bit more capable of talking with common terminology.
Yeah my definition is more "niche" but I just fundamentally disagree withe philosophical underpinnings of definition like Umberto Eco gave and such. I think it's clearly a liberal definition lacking in material or dialectical understanding of the world and fails to ever define anything really.
Regardless, definition itself isnt the basis of the convo. If what I call fascism was called "time-location-based-expropriation-interests", we could still have the convo. we're talking about real things regardless of the word. I still think we disagree after that though, unless the essay also convinces you of an evil you didn't previously understand and results in you agreeing with my analysis or so.
Over everything else, but sometimes the libs give you a nice tasty bait, one you just gotta nibble on and work hard to clean right off in front of everyone you know
Show
But genuinely, fine with discussing until someone obviously deserves a PPB, but until I see a slur or a knowing defense of fascism (I give temporary allowances to those who seem confused), I give my time to the posting wars
I think where you are deviating from the wider hexbear opinion here, and also where I think you're wrong, is based in a belief that precedents are meaningful first off. Before this war was even thought about, these realities were already clear to all powerful people in the world. Acting from the basic material assumptions (and proving that they are ALREADY true) is not making them true. Not having nukes has been a death sentence to countries (eventually, without socialism) since the moment the first one existed. This war doesn't impact that nor how rational global actors work. The ability to do "naked aggression" literally never went away, it was just hidden in plain sight with shitty western justifications. Every world power understood this well before this war, and their rational/justifications won't be impacted. Only new material conditions to work from will arise. Russia's loss or success actually only would give 1 major new piece of info to the world: is it possible to offensively take in the Imperial core indirectly without the result being total destruction of yourself? That's what we're going to learn. We learned from Korea and Vietnam that fighting defensively can work. We learned from middle eastern imperial wars that guerilla struggle is possible to slowly tire out the US.
We will Also learn small details about fighting and material and weapons and strategy, of course. But the worldwide impact is literally just "is it possible to defend yourself from US interests WITH OFFENSE?"
Also I agree with CyborgMarx, best case scenario is Donbas is free to choose to be Russian along with Crimea and Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between NATO and Russia after a loss
You've obviously put some thought into my position here and tried to understand it, so I will do my best to return the favor.
Realpolitik is certainly prevalent, and my country is no stranger to this. Words on paper are only as good as people's willingness to do what it says. I completely agree that the majority of the time, "rules-based diplomacy" just means gunboat diplomacy with extra steps. However, that veneer of western justification at least kept the absolute worst impulses of imperialism at bay, even if just a bit. That "just a bit" part is important, because as you quite rightly say, new material conditions will result in new possibilities. What the result of those possibilities are is important. They directly affect my life in substantial ways.
The point about lessons and thinking about this in purely academic terms is difficult when you have friends and family of friends sucked into the conflict. It's very difficult for me to engage with a point as academic as this being so close to the conflict. I know that is an admission of a lack of impartiality and perspective, but it's the honest truth.
As I said in another comment in this thread, I see Russia as more fascistic and right-wing than Ukraine. So in my head, what you're saying with that final sentence is "Ukraine is forced to reckon with its right wing, fascistic side by being stuck between the global hegemon and even worse right wing fascists".
I disagree entirely that that "just a bit" exists at all. Direct imperial wars were limited only by the conditions and interests of the imperial power, and the justifications only resulted in extra work AFTERWARD the decisions were made to make convincing arguments (or find a way to hide the war).
With all due respect, you're not just influences by perspective or lack of impartiality, but by your own interests. Being just west of Ukraine means that the fascistic border for expropriation (I mean from the West, but also possibly from Russia) will come closer the further west Russia can push. You benefit at least minmially from global imperialism by having that expropriation lead to imports on your side. I don't blame you for desiring to not be hurt by that "border" movement, and I have to hope I will stay strong and support my comrades and movement when that inevitably comes to my place and not try to gain/maintain personal benefits. It's always violent, just usually somewhere else.
This article is the best description for my understanding of Fascism: https://redsails.org/really-existing-fascism/
Russia is just as fascist as every capitalist government. But so far, Crimea hasn't been experiencing the violence anymore than any other group and less than from the imperial core when they were under Ukraine. If "more fascist" means more violent and expropriating more", which is in line wiht that essay, then I think Russia is less fascist. They have legitimately experienced less of the expropriation than before. I think Donbas would be the same, and there's a chance that that continues westward as fascism attempts to consume the border regions for profits.
I think another point of contention here is that I have a fundamentally different understanding of what the word "fascist" means compared to you, which I'm glad you've identified and tried to rectify. Maybe we're just talking about different things. I'll read that essay when I have the time, and hopefully the next conversation I have with you I'll be a bit more capable of talking with common terminology.
Yeah my definition is more "niche" but I just fundamentally disagree withe philosophical underpinnings of definition like Umberto Eco gave and such. I think it's clearly a liberal definition lacking in material or dialectical understanding of the world and fails to ever define anything really.
Regardless, definition itself isnt the basis of the convo. If what I call fascism was called "time-location-based-expropriation-interests", we could still have the convo. we're talking about real things regardless of the word. I still think we disagree after that though, unless the essay also convinces you of an evil you didn't previously understand and results in you agreeing with my analysis or so.
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Thanks comrade
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I prefer the good ol
spoiler
Over everything else, but sometimes the libs give you a nice tasty bait, one you just gotta nibble on and work hard to clean right off in front of everyone you know
But genuinely, fine with discussing until someone obviously deserves a PPB, but until I see a slur or a knowing defense of fascism (I give temporary allowances to those who seem confused), I give my time to the posting wars
deleted by creator
no more half measures walter
deleted by creator
Who cares, socialists in imperialists countries don't support their side in proxy wars, period.