You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.
Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
- the 70's concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
- The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
Show
Russia hadn't fought a war in quite some time and everyone knows it takes time for a peacetime military to readjust, learn the new tactics, and work out the issues revealed by the war. Russia's military now has worked through those kinks and are comparatively prepared for the kind of large scale war being talked about here
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What war prepared Ukraine then? Wagner group hasn't exactly been idle so...
Are you predicting Russian victory or improved engagement outcomes with poorly trained conscripts?
the ongoing civil war in the donbass region of ukraine since 2014 meant that at the start of the war ukraine had regiments of people used to violence and fighting in the area. Of course the ongoing fighting means those units are smaller now and a lot more Russian troops are now less green
I am predicting Russian success and Ukraine are the ones getting their military recruits by roaming press gangs right now