You just gotta love how US military say everything openly and in their reports. In particular, it has a forecast of US casualties and mobilization reserves in a conflict of this level.
Thesis:
- military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
- The combat replenishment rate is 25% or 800 troops per day.
- In 20 years of combat in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has lost about 50,000 people.
In a conflict of the Ukrainian level, the U.S. would suffer such losses in 2 weeks.
- The recruitment shortage is a major problem.
- every soldier not recruited today is a strategic mobility asset [IRR or reservists] that the US will not have in 2031**
- IRR was 700K in 1973, 450K in 1994, now at 76K.
- These numbers will not make up for the projected losses.
- the 70's concept of contract forces is outdated and does not fit the current operational environment.
- The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
"this method of war can only be sustained by constant replacement of troops"
bu bu mah asiatic hordes 😭
some of you may die but that is a sacrifice I am willing to make
Seriously, their only conclusion after saying "we will lose more than 50k people in 2 weeks" is "well, guess we better recruit more!" Psychopaths
The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription.
This would go very very badly.
lol, do it, the world needs more bourgeois fail-child commanding officers fragged to do fortnite dances over
The furry memes about fragging their officers would be so fucking weird, and yet I think they as a group would be some of the most likely to do it.
Surely they could just...I don't know...not start any more wars? That would fix all their manpower shortages and logistics problems instantly.
Somehow I feel like they would rather go through 100 Ukraine wars rather than that though.
If they remove the bases around the globe, the vassals might start getting ideas
Surely they could just…I don’t know…not start any more wars?
That's the neat thing. They couldn't, if they don't want to collapse.
military doctors project a [KIA and WIA] casualty rate for the US Armed Forces of 3,600\day.
So they project this level of losses for US Armed Forces based on the Ukraine war, so considering USAF being better armed, this means they estimate (or even know) the AFU losses are much higher? Isn't that even higher than Russian estimations of AFU losses?
The alternate interpretation is that both countries are holding back their True Strength™ of Even More Deadly Weapons™
I don’t see any way that conscription would be a viable option. Nobody wants to go back to that. Vietnam killed it and GWOT is keeping it fresh in the minds of younger generations.
If the bourgeoisie see it is in their best interests, I can see it being a last resort.
some good old propaganda and this mfers will be smiling while they do it. for a couple years at least
They better do it while the Boomers are still in power. Then they can all go welp, happened to us too.
The needs of the U.S. Armed Forces for a Ukrainian-level war require a transition to conscription
I'm sure that will be popular
I’m sure that will be popular
They don't give a fuck imo, the US could start building gas chambers, the liberals of the world would still call them a democracy that failed to elect the good president
democracy who failed to elect the good president
What, are you from 2016? They can't fail even that now. It's Russian or Chinese meddling in their elections.
They've already forgotten all about the concentration camps at the border now that Sleepy Joe's in power.
if you start making peoples sons die in foreign wars they will start caring. People don't care because they have more to loose by going against the system. That's too far
The ones on the Mexican border that inspired Hitler aren't there anymore?
The propaganda arm of the government has completely painted all of this info as fake.
How will they possibly sell a draft against an enemy too weak to overrun Ukraine?
How will they possibly sell a draft against an enemy too weak to overrun Ukraine
Pardon?
I think the implication is that the west has actively painted Russia as weak and "losing" against Ukraine, and now are faced with the problem of having to motivate people into joining up to go and fight. Why would one sign up to go to a war that their side is already supposedly winning?
To be fair, "just one more big push and we're in Moscow!" would surely sucker some
I suppose it depends on what they're fighting for. If losing means an existential threat, then I'd imagine quite a lot would want to join up, since it would be a necessity. Winning on the other hand doesn't really achieve much for the average westerner, only the ruling class.
Why has recruitment dropped so much? I can understand Americans being reluctant to join the CIA, FBI and NSA. But the US army is still revered by many, and it has many perks.
War on Terror. Military and its benefits wascab easier sell pre 2001. Get money for college, learn a trade, see the world - its peace time, and because of The End of History there's never going beva real war. 9/11 caused a bump in blood and soil reaction requirement, but 20 years of getting shot at inbthe desert for no reason, 20 years of people you know coming back and being disabled or psychologically scarred or commiting suicide, 20 years of the gov not taking care of veterans from your commity that you know. All that eats away at that veneration - whether people express it that way or not.
Not to mention the monumental "Nothing" achieved by the vast majority of the war on terror (besides enriching the MIC, but that doesn't get trumpeted).
Americans across the entire political spectrum understand the War on Terror as an immense criminal act based on lies. Even those that still have an overall positive view of military personnel. It cannot be overstated just how much of a catastrophe that was -- obviously for the innocents -- but also for the military itself.
Most Americans may still be indoctrinated with various forms of shitlibbery but the US military has lost trust for generations. I don't think the US will ever be able to mobilize the meat fodder needed for a great power conflict without a draft and a draft would start a civil war. That's why these ghouls have to rely on vassals and PMCs now.
A draft wouldn't start a civil war, but it would be a speedrun of the public's response to the Vietnam War, including a disintegration of the Army's ability to fight and direct action against recruiting efforts. We'd likely see much more support for that direct action, too.
Unironically a draft would be the best opportunity for American MLs possible, short of federal bombing of American cities
Anecdotally: I've run into a fair amount of veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars who are very vocal in their opinion that nobody should join the military right now. This isn't necessarily because they oppose US imperialism; some veterans do oppose it, but they've often ovecorrected and become extreme pacifists and Leo Tolstoy types. Most of the anti-military veterans I've met are actually rather proud of their "service," but they think the military is corrupt, the wars are unwinnable, and the common enlisted man is treated like shit. A former special forces guy I sort of know peripherally told me once, matter-of-factly, at a gathering we were both at: "in the the military, an attractive woman knows exactly the amount of value she has." Voices like these carry a lot of weight in the small towns and rural areas from which recruits are largely drawn.
Yep, pretty much. Or prostitution in one form or another, like REEEEvolution said below.
They have extreme enlistment requirements. For example, if you have ADHD, Autism, or depression in any form, even if you have treatment or are completely the same as a nuerotypical person, you are still barred entry.
Same goes for any form of drug use. A whole list of genetic or physical issues, and so on. They’ve limited their pool significantly.
depression and drug use, physical issues
lmao, so basically no usian can make in, psychological problems are sky rocketing because of shit living conditions + fentanyl addicts + people with diseases from low quality food like high blood pressure or diabetes.
speaking serious now, i fucking bet that in case a war breaks out, they will lift these restrictions immediately and send the "undesirables" to die, with the exception of prisoners jails are private and having people release could result in profit loss.
They’ve already done that.
Look up “McNamara’s Morons”. The US lifted those restrictions during the Vietnam war, and those units had a casualty rate of nearly 3 times that of standard units.
MacNamara’s Morons
Every time i get to know something new about USA, it's yet another marg bar moment.
And I'm still wondering how could there be people who know these things, who know about Tuskegee trials, MOVE bombing, fuckin Bonus Army - and still cheer for USA, or at least "liberal democracy". But nope, somehow in their mind USSR is still worse
Holy shit, I never expected there ti be an actual RL explanation for Forrest Gump and Bubba
Yep, they were part of Project 100,000, if you also notice during those scenes, the other men in their platoon have some physical disabilities, alcoholism, poor eyesight, under/overweight, and other “McNamara” traits.
exception of prisoners jails are private and having people release could result in profit loss
not if you pay the prisons to recruit prisoners.
someone please take the lathe away from me
selling prisoners would hurt profits in the long run, but that is a problem for tomorrow capitalists, today we profit selling people
these are all issues with how they structure the payment which is very workable
Oh but it's all about that short term gains!
And if they start running out of bodies to fill prison bunks, they just gotta start booking them younger.
Well, technically you can have ADHD, you just can't have any stimulants or treatment.
Which is a bit ironic given the fact that almost all modern day soldiers in all armies are issued a massive emergency dose of stimulants as part of their combat gear.
Here’s PBS on it: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-recruiting-and-confidence-in-americas-armed-forces-is-so-low-right-now
I don't think it is sensible to talk about having a Ukrainian level war without also having the Ukrainian scenario or context i.e. being invaded by a next door neighbor with a powerful military.
I feel like there are a whole bunch of important tactics lessons to be learned, like dealing with small grenade dropping drones, but the way that the United States conducts war is pretty different.
If the United States somehow found itself needing to repel and invasion, it is pretty obvious that enlistment rates would suddenly be very different.
Context matters.
US military doesn't focus on fantasy scenarios though. Their interest is in real world scenarios where US is the invader.
Like invading mexico, which several republican candidates have suggested.
No, we're saying that US has openly threatened to invade Mexico. It's an example of the kinds of things US military actually exists to do.
Exactly. So why waste time deciding on conscripted soldiers for a fantasy Ukrainian scenario?
What you evidently missed here is that this is discussing what's currently happening to the Ukrainian army and their losses. That's what they're making their projections based on.
You evidently missed my point which is that the situation for the Ukrainian people is unique to them. The whole What If That Was Us is pure speculative fantasy and not useful.
Except that's not true at all, what the paper shows is what US can expect if it finds itself in a direct conflict with a peer competitor. Given that US continues trying to provoke a war with China, that's not that speculative of a scenario.
If the United States somehow found itself needing to repel and invasion, it is pretty obvious that enlistment rates would suddenly be very different.
That is a very big "if", keeping in mind that the US has not seen a war on its mainland since 1865.
The US military needs to game out its plan for a full-scale intervention in Europe against Russia. If the US deployed as many soldiers to Europe as Ukraine has, it would suffer 3600 casualties a day fighting a full intensity war against the Russians.
That's simply not how the US goes about it.
It wouldn't be remotely similar. Even if the US decided to limit itself to weapons it had 30 years ago it would still be not that sort of engagement, because it would cost 3600 casualties a day and the US has a wide array of multilayered and coordinated advanced options to use instead.
I thought that was obvious. Ever look at the military spending budgets? US spends more than the next 10 countries combined.
Russia lies about it's readiness and weapons capabilities.
The US lies about it's readiness and weapons capabilities... but in the opposite way.
Russia lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities.
The US lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities… but in the opposite way.
That's some rare tier mental gymnastics.
Have you watched any of the readiness analysis? Russia wasn't maintaining their stuff because corruption.
The US generally does, and invest massive amounts into weaponry, more than is realized.
Hyperbole maybe but grounded in facts. I was surprised at how unready Russia evidently was, especially as the aggressor.
Russia hadn't fought a war in quite some time and everyone knows it takes time for a peacetime military to readjust, learn the new tactics, and work out the issues revealed by the war. Russia's military now has worked through those kinks and are comparatively prepared for the kind of large scale war being talked about here
What war prepared Ukraine then? Wagner group hasn't exactly been idle so...
Are you predicting Russian victory or improved engagement outcomes with poorly trained conscripts?
the ongoing civil war in the donbass region of ukraine since 2014 meant that at the start of the war ukraine had regiments of people used to violence and fighting in the area. Of course the ongoing fighting means those units are smaller now and a lot more Russian troops are now less green
I am predicting Russian success and Ukraine are the ones getting their military recruits by roaming press gangs right now
Taking on entire NATO arsenal for 1,5 year while not even comitting half of their forces is actually way better than i expected for Russia after 31 years of capitalist fuckery.
And i meant more like how the hell you can read the constant stream of US chestpounding and saberratling happening since 1st Iraq war as underestimating.
Russia wasn't maintaining their stuff because corruption.
jesus christ it always is projection with you western chauvinists isn't it
Ok, maybe you should write the next article in the US Army War College journal. You clearly have much better info than those bozos
Generally a smart crowd. Someone may have ordered this analysis be done, but it is wildly speculative what if and not useful.
I've won a couple arguments with Generals and met brilliant ones, and dumb ones.
"What if we ignored all US war fighting strategy for a scenario where we have mostly a land war again like the good ole days" smh
I've won a couple arguments with Generals and met brilliant ones, and dumb ones.
Ever look at the military spending budgets? US spends more than the next 10 countries combined
yeah in large part because of it's deeply entrenched corruption. Americans also spend vastly more on healthcare but they don't have better health outcomes
The US Congress definitely keeps voting for more military spending and protecting insurance companies and big pharma - no dispute there.
There's quite the surge of pro-Russian folks here believing that Russia has an equivalent military and it's just not remotely true.
Count whatever you want: in flight refueling, airborne radar, aircraft carriers, etc ad nauseum.
I'm not saying anything is good or right or how it should be, but objectively that's how it is and isn't surprising given the level of constant spending.
I don't think it matters who would win a direct war between america and russia because if there was a direct war between america and russia everyone who would care about the outcome would have died in a nuclear war
Did you know the Pentagon has never passed an audit? It has spectacularly failed all 5 they've ever done (and they were supposed to do more). Something like 60% of all its assets can't be accounted for, totalling to several trillion dollars worth of stuff over the years. Weapons, tanks, planes, ships, even buildings are missing.
Turns out when you funnel infinite amounts of money into an organization without any oversight, the people in charge don't do what they're supposed to. And that's just the Pentagon.
Russia lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities.
The US lies about it’s readiness and weapons capabilities… but in the opposite way.
Mother of cope.
We have so many expensive ships to slam together the Russians would die laughing
Ukraine provoked such a invasion for 8 years straight. It wasn't russian troops doing ethnic cleansing in Donbas.
but the way that the United States conducts war is pretty different
Nah, see. I agree with this bit. Because Ukraine is exactly how United States conducts war - by having someone else do it, while the wall street filth laugh and clink their wine glasses, assured in their own safety and proud of such profitable investment
It certainly would, and to be clear we're already at the highest risk of a nuclear war than at any point in history.
