The job traditionally goes to the Congressman who can raise the most money, because that Congressman than donates to other races and wins more seats on behalf of the party. This generates favors that the major financial nexus within the party can leverage for leadership.
However, in the post-Citizens United world, more and more races are being financed and run entirely by political interests operating outside of the GOP. This creates a discordance in the party itself, as various pet Congressmen owned and operated by a fractious and increasingly senile base of billionaire donors start Going Their Own Way on questions of policy. Also, more and more folks are drinking the Reagan Era kool-aid and buying into the States Rights mythology that they'd originally tailored to win over a now-rapidly-evaporating base of Civil Rights Era reactionary white folks.
What we saw with McCarthy wasn't a tilt towards Jim Jordan or Matt Gaetz nearly so much as a hemorrhaging of coherent support within the party as a whole. I don't see any reason why Jordan has the 218 vote margin necessary to take the Speakership. He's certainly not going to win any support from Democrats and he's poisoned himself against too many of his colleagues on his side of the isle. Also, without the giant bundle of cash a Speaker/Majority Leader normally uses to whip votes, the inability to assign committee chairs in the middle of a session, and very little to actually legislate save for "Default/Don't Default" as the hot button issue, the real sexiness of Speakership has already been exhausted.
I honestly put higher odds on a Democrat taking the gavel back, simply because Democrats know how to make deals and Republicans don't. Find yourself a half dozen or so House Reps willing to cash out of their seats and you could put Nancy Pelosi (or, perhaps at least, Jim Costa) back in the big chair just in time for the next Jan 6th insurrection.
The job traditionally goes to the Congressman who can raise the most money, because that Congressman than donates to other races and wins more seats on behalf of the party. This generates favors that the major financial nexus within the party can leverage for leadership.
However, in the post-Citizens United world, more and more races are being financed and run entirely by political interests operating outside of the GOP. This creates a discordance in the party itself, as various pet Congressmen owned and operated by a fractious and increasingly senile base of billionaire donors start Going Their Own Way on questions of policy. Also, more and more folks are drinking the Reagan Era kool-aid and buying into the States Rights mythology that they'd originally tailored to win over a now-rapidly-evaporating base of Civil Rights Era reactionary white folks.
What we saw with McCarthy wasn't a tilt towards Jim Jordan or Matt Gaetz nearly so much as a hemorrhaging of coherent support within the party as a whole. I don't see any reason why Jordan has the 218 vote margin necessary to take the Speakership. He's certainly not going to win any support from Democrats and he's poisoned himself against too many of his colleagues on his side of the isle. Also, without the giant bundle of cash a Speaker/Majority Leader normally uses to whip votes, the inability to assign committee chairs in the middle of a session, and very little to actually legislate save for "Default/Don't Default" as the hot button issue, the real sexiness of Speakership has already been exhausted.
I honestly put higher odds on a Democrat taking the gavel back, simply because Democrats know how to make deals and Republicans don't. Find yourself a half dozen or so House Reps willing to cash out of their seats and you could put Nancy Pelosi (or, perhaps at least, Jim Costa) back in the big chair just in time for the next Jan 6th insurrection.