Half-Life 3 announced. America collapses before its released in 2031

  • radiofreeval [any]
    ·
    6 months ago

    Converting this to decimal odds like a normal person:

    AI fake fools a politician who complains on TV: 1.5

    Political assassination anywhere in the world: 2.8

    Joe Biden dies: 2.5

    A VP becomes president: 4 (why is this less likely than Biden kicking the bucket?)

    Legal battle for whether Israel pledges trump free speech: 2

    Israel wins the legal battle: 5

    A fascist doesn't become president: 1001

    Bitcoin's price changes by $40,000: 3

    Retail real estate prices collapse: 4

    Retail real estate gets bailed out: 7

    Any once in a lifetime economic collapse: 3

    Any once in a lifetime weather event: 3

    US involvement in an African military conflict:4

    • WhatDoYouMeanPodcast [comrade/them]
      ·
      6 months ago

      What I should have done for that VP becomes president is Trump wins and then dies for a big 500 odds payout alongside a sizeable Biden dies at any point this year for a 100 payout (which is on there)